El Niño is almost here, and it could become a record strong super El Niño with potential global impacts on rainfall and temperatures from summer through winter, as well as the 2026 hurricane season.

Steady March

The central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters continue to warm toward El Niño following the La Niña that was in place since last summer.

You can see this in the animation from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center below. Note the warmer-than-average ocean water encroaching from both the east and west near the equator, while the cool anomalies have faded since the middle of February.

Latest Model Forecasts

Computer forecast models run this month have trended even more bullish on this future El Niño.

In its regular monthly outlook released May 14, NOAA-CPC said one model ensemble average suggests El Niño could form as soon as June.

NOAA's CFS model has trended stronger over the last several months, as the map below shows for three separate forecasts made in March, April, then May, all for the August through October period.

The latest forecast from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting has also trended stronger for the upcoming El Niño compared to last month's forecast, as you can see in the animation below.

'Super El Niño'

E​l Niño is a periodic warming of water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that can affect global weather patterns for months.

There have been 27 El Niños since 1950, with one happening on average every three to four years. The last one happened from summer 2023 into early spring 2024.

But this won't be your garden-variety El Niño.

NOAA's latest outlook suggests there is an almost 60% chance this El Niño could become strong by fall, and at least a one-third chance it could become a "super El Niño," one in which ocean surface temperatures are at least 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average.

(​WATCH: What Is A Super El Niño?)

T​hese super El Niños are more rare.

There have been only five since 1950, the last occurring 11 years ago from 2015-16. They also occured in 1997-98, 1991-92, 1982-83 and 1972-73. Super El Niños have also been documented in 1888-89 and 1877-78.

R​ecord Strong?

Several ensemble model forecasts suggest this El Niño could eventually top out over 2.5 degrees above average by autumn, placing it among the most intense on record.

"The present state is close to the conditions at the same time in 1997," wrote Paul Roundy, a University of Albany professor and El Niño expert, in an email to weather.com. The 1997-98 event ended up being one of the handful of super El Niños since 1950.

But not all of those ensemble models have as strong an El Niño forecast.

NOAA-CPC sounded a more muted tone, citing "substantial uncertainty in the peak strength of El Niño."

Roundy also mentioned additional westerly wind bursts that recently gave this developing El Niño a head start could eventually work against its future strength by "extracting more heat from the ocean by evaporation."

So, for now, the short answer is, "Maybe."

El Niño’s Potential Impacts

First, some disclaimers.

E​l Niño (and its counterpart, La Niña) is only one influence on the global weather pattern. Also, every El Niño is different, much like every hurricane can have its own idiosyncrasies.

B​ut, in general, the stronger the El Niño, the more likely it will impact global weather.

H​ere are some of those potential impacts.

H​urricane season

A​ stronger El Niño tends to produce more sinking air and stronger wind shear in parts of the Atlantic Basin, both hostile to hurricanes.

S​o, in general, most stronger El Niño Atlantic hurricane seasons are quieter than average. That's not always the case, as the 2023 season illustrated.

M​eanwhile, Eastern and Central Pacific hurricane seasons are typically more active during strong El Niños.

(​IN DEPTH: Strong El Niño Hurricane Seasons | Effects On Tracks | Caribbean Travel Impacts)

W​inter

I​n winter, the southern, or subtropical, branch of the jet stream usually is turbocharged in a stronger El Niño.

T​hat means a wetter winter usually is the result across the southern tier of states from parts of California and the Desert Southwest to Florida and the Southeast. This could also mean more snow across these areas if the air is cold enough, as we illustrated in a previous deep dive.

M​eanwhile, much of the northern U.S. typically has a milder and drier winter during a stronger El Niño, from the Northwest and northern Rockies to the Northern Plains and Midwest.

(​IN DEPTH: What A Super El Niño Means For Winter In Your State)

G​lobal Precipitation

El Niño's impacts typically extend around the globe. Those are highlighted on the map below.

F​or example, parts of Africa, India, Australia, the Philippines, Indonesia, the Caribbean and northern South America trend markedly drier during El Niño.

O​n the other hand, warm water and lighter trade winds typically sets the table for heavier rain in parts of Ecuador and Peru. Parts of eastern Africa, central Asia, Chile, Uruguay and Paraguay are also usually wetter than average during El Niño.

G​lobal Temperatures

One impact we're highly confident about is a spike in global temperatures during this El Niño. At the risk of oversimplifying, all this extra equatorial Pacific Ocean heat is released into the atmosphere, and all large swaths of drier conditions allow plentiful sunshine to heat the surface.

A​s the graph below nicely illustrates, the large majority of El Niños have triggered temperature spikes, including the last "non-super" El Niño in 2023.

T​he previous super El Niño crushed previous global temperature records in 2015 and 2016. Those two years remain among the top 10 warmest years for the planet, all of which have occurred since 2015.

Given last year was the planet's third warmest year, it seems like a slam dunk that new heat records will be set in 2026, possibly again in 2027.

F​rom a climate change angle, this is worrisome.

A​ December 2025 study found super El Niño events can drive sudden "climate regime shifts" in both temperatures and precipitation, and that this effect could be increasing in a warming world.

(​MORE: Summer 2026 Outlook)

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.​