Summer Outlook: Here’s How It Will Feel Where You Live

Summer has almost arrived, but while you wait, why don’t you comfort yourself with a sneak peek at the season’s weather outlook? We have a potential “Super El Niño” on the way, which is going to have a bit to say about who will chill out and who will bake in the heat (though it’s not the only factor!).

The Highlights

• A large portion of the West has been experiencing their hottest year-to-date on record, and temperatures will continue to lean above average through the summer, especially in the Northwest.
• The Great Lakes trend cooler (climatologically speaking) as summer goes on, so August will be leaning the furthest below what’s normal. August is still likely to be the hottest of the three months, but at least it won’t be as hot as it could be!
• Parts of the Gulf Coast will be the farthest above normal in July, so beware of hot and muggy conditions.

Monthly Breakdown

What’s Behind The Pattern?

Strong ridging over Alaska will help drive cooler northwesterly flow into the Northeast, keeping temperatures a little lower in the region while keeping things warm in the Northwest.

The developing El Niño could also contribute to warmer conditions in the Northwest.

(MORE: Why Does El Niño Affect Summer Weather Significantly Less Than Winter?)

El Niño will also set the stage for the below-average hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin, which contributes to the drier-than-average precipitation outlook for the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

Warmer temperatures off the coast of Mexico and California could add moisture in the Southwest.

Sara Tonks is a content meteorologist with weather.com and has a bachelor’s and a master’s degree from Georgia Tech in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences along with a master’s degree from Unity Environmental University in Marine Science.