How A Super El Niño Can Impact Atlantic Hurricane Tracks

You really can bet on everything these days.

Case in point: hurricanes. With the Eastern Pacific Basin's hurricane season starting on May 15, prediction market Kalshi has launched several new hurricane markets where you can bet on everything from how many named storms this season will bring all the way down to which name will become the first hurricane of the year.

And with the Atlantic hurricane season's start looming less than two weeks away on June 1, betting has opened for the first hurricane name in that basin, too.

(MORE: Here's Our Hurricane Outlook For This Season)

But is there any way to predict such a thing with any relative accuracy? Nothing's guaranteed, but there are some trends you can certainly study. We looked at every Atlantic hurricane season since 2000, and here are some things we noticed that could help you, should you choose to try your hand at a prediction market.

It Won't Happen In May (Or Will It?)

Looking back at the last 26 seasons, there hasn't been a single year when the first hurricane of the year reached that status in the month of May. So you should have some time to get acquainted with the prediction markets before the "first hurricane name of the season" market cashes in.

(MORE: Strong El Niño Years Can Bring May Hurricanes)

In fact, if you remove the one outlier (2016), when Hurricane Alex formed on Jan. 14(!), there hasn't been a single hurricane to form before June 21 in the last 26 seasons. So you have at least a month if that trend holds into 2026.

It Could Be The 'A' Storm ...

And that has happened as many times as any letter since 2000. The hurricane names lists go in alphabetical order, which means they always start with an "A" storm — this year's is Arthur. The "A" storm has strengthened into the first hurricane of the season in five years since 2000, tied for the most of any letter.

(MORE: A 'Super' El Niño Is Increasingly Likely; Here's What That Could Mean)

Laying a bet on the "A" storm on Kalshi would currently double your money if Arthur becomes a hurricane.

... But 'Bertha' And 'Dolly' Are In The Running

The "B" and "D" storms of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season aren't going to be as high value right now, but they are also good options, as both letters have also been the first hurricane of five seasons since 2000. Those three letters make up 15 of the 26 seasons' first hurricanes, so it's pretty likely that we won't get far down the 2026 list before we see our first hurricane.

'E' And 'C' Are Dark Horses

Rounding out the first five letters, we've seen "E" storms strengthen into the first hurricane of four seasons since 2000 — Erin (2001), Ernesto (2006), Elsa (2021) and Erin (2025) — and "C" storms have done it twice (Claudette in 2003 and Chris in 2012).

Where are you putting your money — hypothetically or actually? Let me know in the comments below.

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