NOAA Releases Below-Average Hurricane Season Outlook

NOAA forecasters have released their seasonal outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and the numbers are in line with outlooks released by The Weather Company and Colorado State University.

The Outlooks

NOAA's newly released outlook is predicting eight to 14 named storms, with three to six becoming hurricanes. Of those that become hurricanes, one to three are expected to reach Category 3 or stronger, meaning winds higher than 111 mph.

NOAA also predicts a 55% chance of a below-average number of storms this season, a 35% chance of a near-normal number of storms and only a 1o% chance of an above-average number of storms.

This is in line with the outlook previously released by CSU as well as the outlook by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2, though it is released as a range rather than a single number.

Both outlooks are predicting a below-average season, with 12 (The Weather Company) or 13 (CSU) named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. These numbers all fall within the ranges predicted by NOAA.

The average for hurricane seasons is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, which fall within the upper range of the outlook from NOAA for named storms and major hurricanes.

The El Niño Connection

If you are wondering why outlooks are indicating a likely below-average number of named storms, it has to do with El Niño.

An El Niño is expected to be ongoing, potentially even reaching super El Niño levels.

(MORE: A Super El Niño Is Increasingly Likely | What Is El Niño?)

El Niños occurring during the Atlantic hurricane season often lead to increased wind shear in the Atlantic Basin. Increased shear, or changes in wind speed and direction in the atmosphere, hinder hurricane development.

El Niño conditions also lead to more widespread sinking air in the Atlantic, which further hinders development.

“There is more limited downside than upside risk to the forecast given the low numbers, but concerns about a repeat of 2023 (stronger season than expected given emerging El Niño) are relatively low given the much cooler SSTs this year,” according to Atmospheric G2's VP of Meteorology, Dr. Todd Crawford.

This is why the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was so interesting. There was an ongoing El Niño, but the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic were so warm that they combated and essentially canceled out much of El Niño's influence.

This year, the sea surface temperatures are being described as “mediocre” and are not running as far above average across the Atlantic like they were in 2023.

(MORE: 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Strong In Spite Of El Niño)

In the 2023 season, the well-above-average water temperatures in the Atlantic yielded 20 named storms, nearly double the forecast for 2026. Notably, the number of hurricanes in 2023 (seven) and the number of hurricanes that are anticipated in 2026 (six) are very comparable.

It is also worth noting that in all the years with El Niño conditions, there has never been more than one Atlantic landfall in the U.S.

(MORE: El Niño And How It Impacts Hurricane Tracks)

However, it only takes one powerful landfall to call the season active. Even if it is quieter, it is still important to pay attention to the tropics.