NOAA Releases Below-Average Hurricane Season Outlook

I had the opportunity at the beginning of the year to talk with a large cast of specialists in meteorology, modeling and communications about the tropics and how to prepare for them. Each of them had things that they wished we all knew going into the upcoming hurricane season. 

Here's what they told me:

The first tip was given to us by a friend of The Weather Company, Colorado State University research scientist and author of the CSU hurricane outlooks, but it is something you will hear from us many times this season:  

From Dr. Phil Klotzbach: "We advise coastal residents to prepare the same for every hurricane season, regardless of the seasonal hurricane outlooks issued by our group at CSU or any other forecast agency. We emphasize that it only takes one hurricane making landfall near you to make it an active season."

(LATEST: Hurricane Season Outlooks)

What The Experts Want You To Know

• From Dr. Todd Crawford, The Weather Company hurricane expert: “We've gotten pretty good at being able to say if it will be an active season or not, but predicting landfalls is much harder.” However, they are finding correlations that lead to some successful landfall forecasts well in advance of the season.   

(FROM SENIOR MET JONATHAN ERDMAN: Super El Niño Could Affect Hurricane Tracks This Season)

• From Melissa Medori, senior external relations manager for The Weather Company: “While we leverage the world’s most sophisticated technology, the true heartbeat of our work is empathy. ... We want to be the partner you turn to when things get difficult. But we know trust isn’t given; it’s earned over time. It’s about more than reporting data; it’s about providing the clarity and confidence you need to navigate an increasingly volatile world. We prepare year-round behind the scenes so that when the storm arrives, you aren’t facing it alone.”
• From Dr. Phil Klotzbach: Seasonal forecasts are made for the entire Atlantic basin. “While more active Atlantic hurricane seasons generally have more landfalling hurricanes, we can get ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ as well.” Even busy seasons with many hurricanes can have few landfalls and vice versa. 
• From Philippe Papin, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center: There are forecasters working around the clock when there are no active hurricanes. 
• From Zhan Zhang, hurricane modeling project lead at NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center: “Each individual model has its own strengths and limitations. Some may perform better for storm tracks, while others may better capture intensity or structure. Viewing a single model run in isolation can be misleading, especially without scientific context. ... They are designed to inform expert forecasters, who combine model guidance with experience and real-time observations to communicate risk and uncertainty.” 
• From Maj. Sarah Olsen, an aerial reconnaissance weather officer with the Air Force Hurricane Hunters: “I wish everyone would … know how to prepare if you are in a hurricane-prone area, to know how to prepare for those hurricanes because that's something that always shocks me when we go and we do these outreach events during our offseason. A lot of people don't know where to get reliable forecast information.”

(MORE: What To Prepare Ahead Of A Hurricane)

• From NHC warning coordination meteorologist Robbie Berg: The NHC is perfectly fine with people tuning them out in the first few months of the year. “But when we get to April and we get to May, start tuning into what we're saying because we're not trying to just speak words that have no meaning. ... When a hurricane is threatening, there is a lot going on and you might lose your mind, you might lose your focus on what you need to do.”  
• From Matt Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane seasonal forecaster: “That NOAA weather radio you are wanting/waiting to get for hurricane season…might just be the thing that helps you during a severe thunderstorm outbreak, a potent winter storm, or a spring flood. If getting supplies is easier or most cost effective now, do it. Actions now can prepare you for what’s to come. Prepared families are safe families.”

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 in the Atlantic.

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 10 years. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.