Potentially life-threatening flooding is likely through Friday across a broad swath of the Deep South as low pressure tries to become Tropical Storm Arthur near the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts.

(TRACKING MAPS: Spaghetti models, forecast winds, satellite and more)

Current Tropical Alerts

The National Hurricane Center has issued the following wind alerts:

• Tropical storm warnings have been issued from Sabine Pass, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. This means that winds of 39 mph or higher are expected later today or tonight.
• Tropical storm watches have been issued from Sargent, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas. This means that winds of 39 mph or higher are possible today.

Where this system is now

The NHC is calling this system Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

A potential tropical cyclone, or PTC, is a disturbance that has not yet developed into a tropical depression or storm but poses the threat of bringing tropical storm conditions to land areas within 72 hours.

(EXPLAINED: What is a potential tropical cyclone?)

What about possible Arthur?

The system that could become Arthur is centered near the Texas coast, but it doesn't really look much like one that could become a tropical storm in satellite imagery.

That's because strong west winds aloft are blowing almost all of the thunderstorms away from the area of low, what meteorologists

That is one strike against significant development of this low.

The other strike against significant development is that it won't spend much time over the Gulf. We expect it to move inland over Louisiana by tonight, ending any further chance for strengthening.

There's still a chance it could be deemed either Tropical Depression One (if its winds are less than 39 mph) or Tropical Storm Arthur (if its winds are at least 39 mph) today.

But the main threat will be heavy rainfall, regardless of what meteorologists call it.

(MORE: Atlantic hurricane season outlook update)

Where the soaking rain is now

The map below shows where heavy rain is falling right now in the Deep South.

You can see bands of rain streaming ashore along the upper Texas coast, including Galveston and parts of the Houston metro area.

Flood threat

Flood watches have been issued by the National Weather Service in areas shown by the light green shaded areas from coastal Texas as far east as parts of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, including Corpus Christi, Houston, New Orleans, Jackson, Birmingham and Atlanta.

How much more rain will fall?

Even if tropical development doesn't happen, locally heavy rain is forecast for the Deep South through Thursday or Friday.

Through Friday night, some areas may pick up as much as 20 inches of additional rain from the upper Texas coast into Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

This could lead to dangerous flash flooding and some minor to moderate river flooding increasing as the week goes on.

Stay alert for any flash flood warnings and never drive into a flooded stretch of road. Turn around, instead.

(MORE: Why you should never drive into a flooded road)

Other Impacts

Some gusty winds up to 40 mph are possible along the upper Texas Coast and southwest Louisiana today and tonight.

A storm surge of 2-4 feet is also possible between Port Bolivar, Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Rip currents are also expected.

An isolated tornado is possible over the next couple of days along the Gulf Coast and into the Deep South, especially in any coastal bands that form.