LIVE UPDATES: Severe storms, tornado threat builds in Midwest as Deep South braces for Tropical Storm Arthur

Severe storms are ongoing across Illinois, with some of them set to track south towards St. Louis. Let's break down some specific timings for the next few hours. 

• By about 5:20 P.M. CDT, these storms should be moving past Springfield and Champaign, Illinois. They will continue to shift south and should impact St. Louis before 7 P.M. CDT. These storms could bring very gusty winds to 70 mph, hail up to 2 inches in diameter and some strong tornadoes. 
• By about 8:20 P.M. CDT, these could be near Cape Girardeau and will approach Nashville in the overnight hours.

Numerous severe storms remain likely for the next several hours, but the area that we are most concerned about is across northern Illinois and Indiana. 

Strong storms will continue to increase across northern Illinois and will eventually shift into Indiana between 5 and 7 P.M. 

In this area, instability and pressure are dropping, the recipe for intense storm development. There will also be plenty of shear in the upper atmosphere, which is a component needed for tornadoes to develop. 

Between 5 and 6 P.M., hail is the main threat here. But then the threat shifts to tornadoes after 6 P.M.

With severe weather ongoing, safety is a major concern. Here are some of the safety tips you should know if severe weather is approaching your area:

1. Pay attention to watches and warnings in and near your county. Severe storms could be heading into your area and you just aren’t included in the watch yet. 
2. Tornado sirens are not designed to be heard indoors. They are to warn those outside to seek shelter. 
3. Your smartphone can give you alerts of severe weather. 
4. Even if you don’t see a tornado, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take shelter.
5. Just because you are in a severe thunderstorm watch or warning, that doesn't mean you can’t get hit by a tornado. 

We have an article with even more reminders on how to stay safe if you want to read the full list.

A new severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for eastern Kansas and most of Missouri, valid until 10 P.M. CDT. 

This watch could bring gusts to 75 mph, hail to three inches in diameter and a tornado or two. 

This watch, along with the other watch already issued, means that there are over 4.5 million people under severe thunderstorm watches.

If you have been thinking that the month of June has been particularly impressive in terms of severe, you are not wrong. We have seen over 2,700 wind reports between June 1 and 16. This is the second-highest number of wind reports in this time period on record, losing only to 3,619 wind reports to start June 2008. 

Should the active pattern continue the rest of the month, we could compete with the all time highest number of wind reports in the month of June, which is 5,554.

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of eastern Missouri and central Illinois, valid until 10 P.M. CDT.

The main threats are a couple of intense tornadoes, gusts to 75 mph and hail to three inches in diameter.

This watch is for nearly 5 million people and includes St. Louis and Springfield, Illinois.

Tropical Storm Arthur formed on June 17, before astronomical summer even begins, might feel early but actually, the Atlantic’s first named storm of 2026 is pretty much right on schedule.

On average, the “A” storm typically forms on or around June 20. Last year, Andrea was a bit of a late bloomer, forming on June 24, 2025. Another huge difference between Arthur and Andrea is that the first named storm of 2025 was a short-lived “fish” storm that didn’t come near land, while Arthur is already causing flooding issues in Texas.

Some other interesting details regarding Arthur’s timing and location: For seven consecutive years (2015 through 2021), the Atlantic basin saw at least one named storm form before the official June 1 start of hurricane season. Early-season storms in June almost always form exactly where Arthur did: in the Gulf of Mexico, the western Caribbean, or just off the Southeastern U.S. coast. The ocean temperatures in the deeper Atlantic aren't quite warm enough yet.

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A new severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin. The watch is valid until 8 P.M. CDT. 

The main threats include isolated very large hail to 2 inches in diameter, gusts to 70 mph and a tornado or two. 

In total, there are nearly 1.5 million people under this severe thunderstorm watch.

CIRA satellites captured the formation of Tropical Storm Arthur, the first one of the Atlantic season:

This storm has been bringing impressive rainfall across the Gulf Coast as it slowly moves to the northeast. Below are some notable rainfall totals since Sunday morning: 

• Caldwell, Texas: 9.02 inches
• Ragland Hills, Mississippi: 8.00 inches
• Galveston, Texas: 7.87 inches
• Alexandria, Louisiana: 7.80 inches

Here is a more comprehensive list from the Weather Prediction Center.

Both Tropical Storm Arthur and the severe weather outbreak are bringing heavy rainfall, so flood watches have been issued for both. Flood watches from Arthur spread from Texas to Georgia, while the flood watches from the severe threat spread from Iowa to Michigan. In total, over 45 million people are under flood watches. 

For the Midwest, rainfall rates over 2 inches per hour are possible, which could lead to rainfall totals potentially up to 7 inches. 

For the Gulf Coast, additional rainfall of 3-5 inches is possible the rest of the day, which could lead to rainfall totals up to 10 inches. It wouldn’t be out of the question that isolated areas could see up to 20 inches of rainfall.

The severe storm threat is expected to continue into the overnight hours, and that includes the threat of nighttime tornadoes. 

Nighttime tornadoes are nearly twice as deadly for a variety of reasons. 

The most obvious reason: you can’t see tornadoes in your path unless they are illuminated by something like lightning. And that is only around for a moment. There are fewer storm chasers and tornado spotters who are willing to go looking to confirm tornadoes at night. 

There is also the fact that you could be sleeping and a tornado could be heading toward your home. 

While nighttime tornadoes are most common in the South, the Midwest is still one of the top regions for these potentially deadly tornadoes.

All eyes and many chasers are in the Midwest chasing severe weather today, but tornadoes are also possible on the Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Arthur rides the coastline from Texas to Louisiana. 

While one jet stream is affecting the Midwest, the subtropical jet stream is affecting Arthur, bringing a source for wind shear to the storm. This is a key ingredient for tornadoes. Arthur will bring plenty of heat and moisture, meaning tornadoes are possible through tonight in Louisiana and Mississippi ahead of Arthur’s center.

As the severe weather outbreak unfolds across the Midwest, it is important to know that not all tornado warnings are the same. But even though they are not all the same, they should all be taken seriously. 

Here are some of the types of tornado warnings:

• Radar indicated: no tornado is confirmed, but one could form at any time. 
• Radar confirmed: a tornado has been confirmed by radar. You can often see a tornado debris signature on radar.
• Spotted confirmed: a trained spotter or law enforcement has been able to confirm the tornado.
• Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Confirmed Tornadoes: a large and dangerous tornado has been observed.
• Tornado emergency: the rarest warning saved for the most dire situations where there is a severe threat to human life. 

For more information on the different types of warnings, read here.

This morning’s derecho appears to have finally lost its steam over central Illinois. 

This term for a widespread damaging windstorm triggered by thunderstorms tracked about 360 miles in 7 hours from its birth near Storm Lake, Iowa, around 3:30 a.m. CDT to its final wind damage reports in central Illinois. 

Now we wait for the second round of severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

The sea is angry today as Tropical Storm Arthur strengthens not too far from Galveston, Texas. Check out the images above to see how coastal flooding and strong winds are already starting to become a problem.

A special 11:30 A.M. CDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center extended tropical storm warnings southward to Sargent, Texas. 

The maximum sustained winds for Tropical Storm Arthur have also increased to 45 mph. 

Illinois is reporting the highest number of power outages right now, with more than 23,000 customers without electricity, according to PowerOutage.us. Here are the latest numbers from other states being impacted by the severe weather:

Texas: 11,592 outages

Tennessee: 9,538 outages

Missouri: 7,535 outages

Louisiana: 4,411 outages

Ohio: 4,052 outages

Storms started early this morning across Iowa. Several damaging wind gusts really jumped out in the list, including a 94-mph wind gust north of Marshalltown. 75-plus-mph gusts were also reported in Webster City, Saint Anthony, Walford and Cedar Rapids. Sheds were toppled and large limbs were ripped from trees as storms moved through.