How weather may impact the World Cup

Several World Cup cities both in the U.S. and Mexico are within reach of tropical storms and hurricanes and though the threat is lower early in the season, history has shown those cities have been hit before in June and July.

During the week before Father's Day, Tropical Storm Arthur briefly spun up near the Texas coast and spread flooding rain into the Deep South for several days.

So you may be wondering whether something like this could happen again as the World Cup continues into mid-July.

What is June and July risk?

As you can see in the graph below, the risk of tropical storms and hurricanes in the first two months of the Atlantic hurricane season is generally low.

According to National Hurricane Center statistics, two storms usually form by mid-July in an average hurricane season.

The early risk is near the US

What storms do form in June and July typically do so near the U.S., as the map below shows, including the Gulf and near or off the East Coast.

Storms that form there can and often do move inland spreading heavy rain and winds sometimes hundreds of miles inland as remnants for days after landfall.

One World Cup city is most prone this early

We examined NOAA's best track database looking for all tropical storms and hurricanes that tracked within 200 kilometers, or about 125 miles, of each host city from June 11 through July 19, covering the entire World Cup from group stage to the final.

One host city stood above all others.

Twenty storms have tracked near or over Houston in that 39-day period in records dating to 1851.

Aside from Arthur's recent swipe, historic Hurricane Beryl pummeled Houston and the Texas coast with destructive winds, storm surge and rainfall flooding two years ago in early July.

Various other storms are listed in the map below. Many of them didn't slam Houston nearly as hard as Beryl.

Miami's early season threat lower than you think

You may have noticed Miami's tally of only five storms or hurricanes from mid-June through mid-July and thought that was too low.

But South Florida isn't usually a tropical storm or hurricane hot spot that early in the season.

It's been 90 years since Miami has seen a storm track within 200 kilometers from June 11 through July 19.

And only one of those five sysstems was a hurricane at the time, a mid-June 1906 Category 1 hurricane.

Instead for Miami, the far greater concern will be heat, humidity and the threat of thunderstorms.

Northeast early-season storms rare, but recent

While about as rare this early in the season as it is in Miami, there have been more recent early-season tropical storms in the Northeast.

Boston, New York City and Philadelphia each took swipes from 2021's Tropical Storm Elsa. Philly and New York also were soaked from 2020's Tropical Storm Fay.

June 1972's Tropical Storm Agnes was a historic flood producer in the Northeast, as well.

Mexico's sites also have had brushes

Mexico's three World Cup cities are all located well inland from either the Gulf or Pacific Ocean.

But on rare occasions, a remnant of a past hurricane or tropical storm has made it that far inland.

Among the four mid-June through mid-July storms that tracked near Guadalajara, Tropical Storm Dolores dumped over 7 inches of rain in Jalisco state west and south of the city in late June 2021.

Mexico City had only one such storm this early in the season, when the former Hurricane Cosme dumped flooding rain in parts of the city in late June 1989.

Like Mexico City, Monterrey also sits about 180 miles from water. They haven't had a mid-June through mid-July system pass within 200 kilometers since 1954's Hurricane Alice.

But in early July 2010, the remnant of Hurricane Alex dumped up to 35 inches of rain over Monterrey, triggering flash flooding which destroyed four bridges, scoured out streets and buried some vehicles in feet of debris.

Other sites have taken rare swipes

Atlanta can have its share of tropical remnants in any hurricane season, but only four such storms have passed near the city from mid-June through mid-July. The last one happened 61 years ago.

Dallas' only tropical storm from mid-June through mid-July happened 124 years ago.

Kansas City (two) and Toronto (four) have had remnants of former tropical storms or hurricanes pass nearby this early in the season. But each city was too far inland to have anything survive as a tropical storm that far north.

The West Coast cities from Los Angeles to Vancouver are protected by cold Pacific Ocean water, though later in the season Southern California has seen some action in the past.

The bottom line, here, is the risk of a tropical storm and especially a hurricane during the World Cup is very low, based on past history.

Heat and thunderstorms are much more common threats most of these sites will have to contend with into mid-July.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.