July temperatures could be hotter than usual in much of the East and central U.S., and parts of the Plains could trend much drier, according to a just-released outlook by Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company.

Key temperature takeaways

• The best chance for a hotter than average July is in the Northern Plains, including the Dakotas, parts of eastern Montana, northeastern Wyoming and western Minnesota.
  
• However, as you can see in the animation below, our outlook has trended hotter in the eastern two-thirds of the nation from the outlook released in mid-June.
  
• Parts of New England and the Northeast may be a bit less hot for the month, overall.
  
• The best chance for at least a somewhat cooler July appears to be in the Desert Southwest, for reasons we'll explain a bit later.
  

The persistence of the heat in the East is quite uncertain.

"We are a bit uneasy going into July, given the pattern doesn't appear as if it will resemble previous strong (El) Niño events," according to Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2 and chief author of the outlook.

He noted a blend of the last three stronger El Niño Julys showed cooler than average temperatures from parts of the Rockies to the Great Lakes.

"Perhaps this El Niño event is too strong, and a sort of atmospheric range folding is producing an unusual response," Crawford also noted.

July's precipitation outlook

• A wetter than average July is most likely in the Desert Southwest, from Arizona and southeastern California to Utah and Nevada.
  
• July is typically the start of the summer thunderstorm season (the North American monsoon) in the Desert Southwest, where thunderstorms with either strong winds and/or flooding rain can become almost daily events.
  
• A drier July is most possible in parts of the Southern Plains, from Texas to southern Kansas and the Ozarks.
  
• If this happens during one of the hottest times of the year, it could spread the existing drought still in place in parts of the region.