The end of summer and early fall is expected to be hot in some parts of the U.S., but cooler than average in others, particularly in August and October.

Here are the highlights:

• August has trended warmer for much of the East, from Florida to New England, compared to our last outlook.
• However, August is still expected to be at least somewhat cooler than average in the Great Lakes and Midwest, particularly in northern Michigan and northern Wisconsin.
• September may be warmer than average over much of the nation.
• The South may have a cooler than average October.
• The Southwest monsoon, basically their season of summer thunderstorms through September, is expected to be wetter than usual.
• While not typically a wet time of year, the next three months are expected to be very dry in the Pacific Northwest.

Here are the monthly temperature maps:

The one dominant factor

The outlook released Saturday by Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company has a heavy influence from an intensifying El Niño.

In fact, it's outpacing previous strong El Niños through mid-July, according to Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2 and chief author of the outlook.

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Crawford also noted computer models are continuing to increase the strength of this potential record-setting El Niño into fall and winter.

That's playing a role in the hot Northwest, cooler Great Lakes August forecast.

But it also could influence October's temperatures.

Past stronger El Niño Octobers have been cooler in parts of the East, and various model forecasts suggest the fall could trend cooler in parts of the South and Southeast, according to Crawford.

Aside from El Niño, Crawford also noted the historically warm water in the Pacific Ocean near Mexico's Baja Peninsula and Southern California that is expected to enhance rainfall during the Southwest monsoon through September.

(MORE: Intensifying El Niño to reshape 2026 hurricane season)