An intensifying super El Niño is already influencing the 2026 hurricane season, both in the Atlantic and Pacific, and that could have important impacts the rest of the season through fall.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a warming of water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator that typically happens every three to four years.

But this one isn't your garden-variety El Niño.

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It has already warmed above the threshold to be called a "super El Niño," which is when those ocean waters are at least 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, warmer than average.

It's also on a record pace already. Most computer model forecasts suggest it will eventually become the strongest El Niño in modern records sometime later this year.

(MORE: Historic super El Niño looms)

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Why does this matter?

So what does warm ocean water near the equator have to do with your weather?

While El Niño is only one influence on global weather, its heat transferred to the atmosphere can have a significant impact on weather patterns around the world from summer through fall, winter and spring.

And the stronger the El Niño, the more likely you'll see its typical weather impacts, such as a wet southern U.S. in winter or drought in Australia and Indonesia.

(MORE: El Niño could impact this winter's snowfall)

How is it impacting hurricane season?

Stronger El Niños often leave a thumbprint on hurricane seasons, both in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

On the Atlantic side, a strong El Niño often produces higher wind shear, especially over the Caribbean Sea. We have a full explanation of wind shear here, if you're interested.

Wind shear is one enemy of hurricanes and can even rip systems apart before they can become tropical storms.

In July, wind shear over the Caribbean Sea was the highest on record since 1979, according to WPLG TV hurricane expert, Michael Lowry.

You can see this high wind shear in the Caribbean on the map below highlighted in the box.

Stronger El Niños also produce more sinking air over the Atlantic Basin than usual.

Sinking air dries out and suppresses showers and thunderstorms, the basic building blocks of tropical storms and hurricanes.

But it's having the opposite effect in the Pacific Ocean.

Tropical activity in both the eastern and western Pacific basins has been above average so far this season. Just this week, we've had two Category 5 Pacific storms, Hurricane Genevieve and Super Typhoon Dolphin.

One way you can see this is in the graph below. The ACE index not only counts the number of storms, but also takes into account how strong and long-lasting they are. The higher the index, the more active the season.

So, think of this like a seesaw. The Pacific is more active, the Atlantic is not.

What could that mean for the rest of the season?

1. It could take longer for the Atlantic hurricane season to become busier.

This ramp-up of the Atlantic season usually takes place in August.

Hostile wind shear and dry air usually subside, there's plenty of deep, warm ocean water for fuel and a parade of "seedlings" for tropical development march off western Africa every few days.

But if this powerhouse El Niño is fueling more shear and dry air, that ramp-up may be both delayed and less impressive this season.

In their July 28th weekly global tropical outlook, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center wrote, "TC (tropical cyclone; a generic term for tropical storms and hurricanes) formation is unlikely over the Caribbean and Central Atlantic for the foreseeable future."

2. The Caribbean threat is much lower this season.

Not only could it be very difficult for storms to form over the Caribbean Sea, but any storms that form in the eastern Atlantic may run into a hostile wall of conditions as they near the Caribbean this year.

If you want to save money on Caribbean travel compared to the peak winter months, you may consider travel this August, September or October.

3. There's a lower, but not zero, chance of a U.S. hurricane landfall this season.

In their latest hurricane season outlook, meteorologists at Atmospheric G2 found seven previous El Niño hurricane seasons with similar current and forecast conditions to this year.

None of those past El Niño seasons had more than one hurricane make a U.S. landfall.

We also examined previous super El Niño hurricane tracks. There weren't many of them, and what few there were tended to stay out to sea.

(MORE: How super El Niño could affect where hurricanes go)

4. The threat is higher than usual along Mexico's Pacific Coast and Hawaii.

Again, back to the seesaw analogy. Less active Atlantic, more active Pacific.

Keep this in mind if you have travel plans to, say, Puerto Vallarta, Los Cabos or Hawaii. With more storms and plentiful warm water besides the El Niño, the risk of a hurricane is higher than usual.

5. It only takes one to make a hurricane season destructive, and it doesn't even need to be a hurricane.

In June, Tropical Storm Arthur, not a particularly well organized storm, still dumped up to 29 inches of flooding rain in Louisiana.

A quiet season doesn't mean a complete shutout.

Be prepared every hurricane season in case that "one storm" targets your area, regardless of how super an El Niño is.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.