The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area in the western Gulf that could become our next tropical system, Isaias. 

Where is the area of interest now?

An area of low pressure is expected to emerge off the coast of Mexico within the next few days, and will be worth watching for signs of tropical development. Right now there is a medium chance of development in the next week.

The NHC says we could see a tropical depression form by the middle to end of the week. 

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(MORE: Hurricane season maps tracker)

Where will the system go? 

As expected, it’s too early to say exactly where the system will go if it forms. The American model and European models have different takes on what the scenarios will be. However, they should come into better agreement in the coming days, so we will have a clearer picture of what may happen and who could potentially be impacted. 

Regardless of formation, this could mean additional rain for the already soaked Southeast in the coming week. We could see more heavy rain move in by next weekend along the Gulf Coast. We will be closely watching areas from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle for potential impacts. 

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(MORE: Hurricane Preparedness: What You Need To Know During Hurricane Season)

 What obstacles might this system encounter?

With the jet stream sagging far to the south, this potential system will have to battle quite a bit of wind shear along the northern Gulf. However, if the jet stream shifts a little to the north, there could be a window of opportunity for strengthening. That will be something we have to watch closely in the coming days. 

You can see the wind shear map below, the colors in red indicate strong shear. Wind shear disrupts, weakens and sometimes entirely prevents the development of tropical systems and hurricanes.

Storms can still form during strong El Niño years

Even though this hurricane season has proved to be one of the quietest on record, that doesn’t mean we can’t get an impactful tropical system or hurricane.

There have been seasons in the past that have managed to produce strong storms, despite a strong El Niño. 

(MORE: Stay prepared this hurricane season)

The image below shows several hurricanes that have formed during super El Niño seasons from 1972 to 2015. 

It’s just a reminder not to become too complacent, especially as we are already past the peak of hurricane season without a single hurricane. 

Stay vigilant, prepared and keep your eyes on the tropics in the week ahead.