A coastal storm is forecast to develop next week that will bring high surf, rip currents, coastal flooding, winds and rain to parts of the East Coast for several days.

Here's what we're watching

Various computer forecast models are now coming into better agreement that low pressure will form somewhere off the coast of the Carolinas this weekend.

And that low might linger for several days.

What we don't yet know

Even with this somewhat clearer overall picture of this lumbering low, there are still aspects of this forecast that aren't as clear right now:

• How much rain or wind farther up the coast: Some models eventually push a batch of rain as far north as coastal New England, while others keep those impacts pinned mainly to the mid-Atlantic coast.
• How long it will last: Some models keep this coastal low going in some form through much of next week while others weaken it a bit faster or drift it into the Atlantic sooner.

Key takeaways

Even with lingering uncertainty, there are aspects that we have more confidence about.

• We do not expect this storm to be as strong as the late September nor'easter.
• The area most likely impacted the longest appears to be from the Delmarva Peninsula to eastern North Carolina.
• Impacts in those areas include periods of rain, winds and coastal flooding at high tide for several days starting Sunday.
• High surf and rip currents are likely much of the week from Florida's Atlantic beaches to New England.

There's a wild card

Notice that tongue of warmer water off the coast of the Carolinas in the map below? That's the Gulf Stream, a strong ocean current that pipes warm water from the Gulf to the Atlantic Ocean.

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If this offshore low lingers long enough over the Gulf Stream or the abundant warm water to its east, it could sprout enough thunderstorms to become either a subtropical or tropical depression or storm.

For now, we think the chance of that is very low, but not zero.

The next named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season will be called "Josephine."

(MORE: What all these tropical terms actually mean)

What you should do

• For now, just keep in mind that the weather next week along the East Coast, particularly from North Carolina to the Delmarva Peninsula, may at least be windy and, in some areas, there could be rain and coastal flooding at high tide.
• Obey any red flags warning of rip current danger at the beach. If in doubt, stay out of the surf zone if breaking waves look impressive.
• Check back with us at weather.com in the days ahead as this forecast comes into focus.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X and Facebook.