An October nor'easter is forecast to develop by the end of the weekend. It will remain into the upcoming week and will bring high surf, rip currents, coastal flooding, winds and rain to parts of the East Coast for several days.

Here's what we're watching

Various computer forecast models are now coming into better agreement that low pressure will form somewhere off the coast of the Carolinas by Sunday at the latest.

Fortunately, it doesn't look to be as strong as the one in September. But the bad news? It could linger for much of the week, so impacts could be stronger than you would think.

Key takeaways

Here are aspects that we have more confidence about.

• We do not expect this storm to be as strong as the late September nor'easter.
• The area most likely impacted the longest appears to be from the Delmarva Peninsula to eastern North Carolina, with more models pointing to primarily eastern North Carolina.
• Impacts in those areas include periods of rain, especially across the Outer Banks, with pockets of flooding, gusty winds to 45 mph and significant beach erosion and coastal flooding.
• High surf and rip currents are likely much of the week from Florida's Atlantic beaches to New England.

What we don't yet know

Even with this somewhat clearer overall picture of this lumbering low, there are still aspects of this forecast that aren't as clear right now. However, these are beginning to narrow down with more clarity expected Sunday:

• Amount of rain and wind farther up the coast: The models are tending to show that the bulk of the heaviest rain is expected to remain focused around the Carolinas. There is a decreasing but still not zero chance that rain will move as far north as coastal New England, but the chance for wind remains more possible.
• Duration of the storm: Models are beginning to show this low sticking around for days. There are a few that weaken it a bit faster, turning its impacts by the end of the week into more of a nuisance than anything.

There's a wild card

Notice that tongue of warmer water off the coast of the Carolinas in the map below? That's the Gulf Stream, a strong ocean current that pipes warm water from the Gulf to the Atlantic Ocean.

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If this offshore low lingers long enough over the Gulf Stream or the abundant warm water to its east, it could sprout enough thunderstorms to become either a subtropical or tropical depression or storm.

For now, we think the chance of that is very low, but not zero.

The next named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season will be called "Josephine."

(MORE: What all these tropical terms actually mean)

What you should do

• For now, just keep in mind that the weather beginning Monday along the East Coast, particularly from North Carolina to the Delmarva Peninsula, may at least be windy and, in some areas, there could be rain and coastal flooding at high tide.
• Obey any red flags warning of rip current danger at the beach. If in doubt, stay out of the surf zone if breaking waves look impressive.
• Check back with us at weather.com in the days ahead as this forecast comes into focus.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X and Facebook.