An October nor'easter is developing in the Atlantic, where it will bring high surf, rip currents, coastal flooding, winds and rain to parts of the East Coast for several days this week. The National Hurricane Center has it highlighted as an area to watch this week for potential subtropical development.

However, regardless of development, this system will bring dangerous conditions to the East Coast this week.

Fortunately, this system doesn't look to be as strong as the one in September. But the bad news? It could linger for much of the week, so impacts could have a longer duration than you would think.

There are currently coastal flood alerts across parts of coastal North Carolina and Virginia, where anywhere from 1 to 4 feet of inundation is possible.

Key takeaways

• We do not expect this storm to be as strong as the late September nor'easter.
• The area most likely impacted the longest appears to be from the Delmarva Peninsula to eastern North Carolina, with more models pointing to primarily eastern North Carolina.
• Impacts in those areas include periods of rain, especially across the Outer Banks, with pockets of flooding, gusty winds to 45 mph and significant beach erosion and coastal flooding.
• High surf and rip currents are likely much of the week from Florida's Atlantic beaches to New England.

• The bulk of the heaviest rain is expected to remain focused around the Carolinas, but there is still some uncertainty around how much rain will move as far north as coastal New England
• This low could stick around for days, slowly moving up the East coast before heading further out to sea by later this week, but models have some disagreement on exact track and intensity of the storm, which could affect who sees the worst impacts

What you should do

• For now, just keep in mind that the weather beginning Monday along the East Coast, particularly from North Carolina to the Delmarva Peninsula, may at least be windy and, in some areas, there could be rain and coastal flooding at high tide.
• Obey any red flags warning of rip current danger at the beach. If in doubt, stay out of the surf zone if breaking waves look impressive.
• Check back with us at weather.com in the days ahead as this forecast comes into focus.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X and Facebook.