El Niño winters tend to bring fewer, weaker Arctic outbreaks across the Great Lakes, but that doesn't guarantee less lake-effect snow for cities like Buffalo and Grand Rapids, since all it takes is cold air crossing warmer, unfrozen water to spark a major event. The last El Niño winter proved the point: parts of western Michigan and Buffalo still saw significant lake-effect snow in 2023, despite the milder overall pattern. The lesson: a milder outlook isn't a guarantee of a snow-free season.