El Niño’s impacts on November temperatures and precipitation
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As El Niño continues to ramp up, its weather impacts are really beginning to show. Here’s the latest outlook.

Rob Shackelford
ByRob Shackelford•
22 hours agoUpdated: October 22, 2026, 7:12 am EDTPublished: October 22, 2026, 6:09 am EDT

November outlook: How El Niño could impact your temperatures

The November outlook has been released by The Weather Company, and although we are approaching winter, millions across the country will have to wait another month to see any signs of the season. But for a lucky few, they may see it come early.

El Niño continues to play a part in the weather for the Lower 48 with this month being no exception.

Whose winter is delayed?

The temperature map below shows who may have to wait for their winters to begin. Note that these maps are just an average, and you could get a surprise from Mother Nature.

(MORE: The weather myths about El Niño you’re probably getting wrong)

November Outlook Temperatures

The first area to notice is the darkest red across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This area, from the Dakotas to northern Indiana, is where the strongest above-average temperatures are expected for the month.

Above-average temperatures spread from the Northern Plains to most of the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys all the way to the interior Northeast.

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(THANKSGIVING TRAVEL: Where weather risk is highest this year)

Slightly above-average temperatures are expected in the eastern Rockies and Four Corners region, most of the Southern Plains and Southeast, and the major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor.

Average temperatures are expected for New England, Florida and the southern portions of Louisiana and Texas through the Rockies to the Pacific Northwest.

The only below-average area includes California as well as portions of Oregon, Nevada, Arizona and Utah.

The soggiest states

The vast majority of the Lower 48 should expect average amounts of precipitation, but let’s break that down.

The only below-average area in terms of expected precipitation is the Pacific Northwest. The soggiest areas stretch from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the Atlantic coast of Maryland.

Slightly above-average precipitation stretches from California and the southern portions of New Mexico and Arizona to a large stretch from Texas to southern New Hampshire. Those in the West may actually not feel robbed of winter if these trends continue in the coming months.

(MORE: How a super El Niño could impact grocery prices this year)

November Precip Outlook

El Niño’s fingerprints

As we approach a record El Niño, certain weather patterns are unfolding.

The general winter pattern is warmer and drier in the northern tier, drier in the Midwest and wetter across the South.

While El Niño is still developing, it isn’t a perfect fit to the standard seen below. But there are quite a few similarities.

(MORE: Will this super El Niño push snow to the South? Here's the catch)

El Niño Pattern

Some of us may have to wait for winter’s touch, but for those who actually want fall, your time may have finally arrived.

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