Like Bing Crosby, you might be dreaming of a white Christmas this year. But thanks to a record-strong El Niño, your luck has changed this holiday season - and it's all dependent on where you live.

The definition

First, meteorologists have a strict definition for purposes of record keeping.

A white Christmas is defined as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning.

It's snow cover, not falling snow, that counts.

So, if there's no snow on the ground in the morning, and an inch of snow falls that afternoon or evening, it doesn't count as a white Christmas. Think of it as like unwrapping another present when you open the curtains and see snow on the ground that morning, if you're one who loves snow, that is.

It doesn't happen as often as you think

The map below shows the typical chance of a white Christmas in a given year, based on average data from 1991 through 2020.

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For much of the country, the historical odds of at least 1 inch of snow cover Christmas morning are less than 50%.

For example, New York City's Central Park has only had 16 white Christmases since 1912. Washington, D.C. has managed only 13 of those since 1893.

Only parts of northern New England, the northern Great Lakes and Mountain West are a good bet each year.

Want to see what your typical odds are where you live? Check out our interactive white Christmas weather lab.

It varies a lot

Since 2003, the average Christmas morning snow cover blanketed about 36% of the Lower 48 states.

Seven of those Christmases happened during an El Niño. The Christmas morning snow cover during those Niño Christmases is shown in the animation below.

(COMPLETE COVERAGE: El Niño 2026-27)

As you can see, there can be a lot of change year to year.

That's not too surprising, since this only considers snow cover on one particular day, which also depends on how much snow fell and how warm or cold it was in the days prior to Christmas.

El Niño Christmas snow cover has varied from as much as 63% of the Lower 48 after a historic Plains blizzard in 2009, to the least in the past 23 years, just under 18% coverage, during the last El Niño in 2023.

On Christmas morning 2015 during the most recent super El Niño, 37% of the continental U.S. had snow on the ground.

Our interactive white Christmas page also has yearly Christmas snow cover maps since 2003.

Some city examples

We also examined Christmas snow depth data from 1950 through 2025 for some major cities across the country, parsing them out by whether there was a super El Niño, an El Niño, La Niña (El Niño's opposite) or neutral conditions at the time.

Neither New York City nor Washington, D.C. has had a white Christmas during five previous super El Niños dating to 1950. However, their odds are typically low, anywhere from 5 to 12 percent, according to NOAA.

You'll also notice the large reductions in Christmas snow depths during super El Niños in both Chicago and Minneapolis. 1997 was the only super El Niño that eked out a white Christmas in Chicago, with only an inch on the ground, at that.

Denver's boost during super El Niños was largely due to one historic holiday blizzard in 1982, during which 2 feet of snow was on the ground Christmas morning.

(WEATHER LAB: Find your city's odds)

What could happen this year

Again, it's too soon to be able to determine who will have snow cover on the ground for Christmas. That depends on weather in the days leading up to the holiday.

One winter storm with just enough cold air could arrive in time to provide a white Christmas to areas where it's usually less likely.

Looking back at the six strongest El Niños since 1950, we expect white Christmas chances to be much lower than usual from the Great Lakes into the Northeast.

Our outlook for a much warmer than average December in the Midwest and Northeast certainly supports a better chance of bare ground in those areas.

But if you want a higher than usual chance, head to the southern Rockies, including the high country of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah.

If you're an avid skier or snowboarder, this may be the area to consider focusing on if you're dreaming of a holiday on the slopes.

(WEATHER LAB: A closer look at which city odds are higher and lower this year)

We will kick off our official white Christmas forecast in the middle of December.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.