U.S. Experiencing Most Expansive Drought in Seven Years

Almost half of the contiguous U.S. is suffering from drought, which is the most expansive in seven years, but some help may be ahead in a few areas.

Drought conditions have expanded and worsened across much of the West, Plains and Northeast since the summer began. Drought now covers the greatest area of the Lower 48 since September 2013.

Just under 47% of the contiguous U.S. is at least in moderate drought, and almost 65% is at least abnormally dry as of Oct. 13, 2020, according to the United States Drought Monitor. Areas of the West are in extreme or exceptional drought, the two highest categories. Extreme drought has also developed in parts of New England recently.

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Tropical systems and tropical moisture have created wetter-than-average conditions from the northern Gulf Coast into the mid-Atlantic, with limited abnormally dry spots.

Short Term Drought Relief?

Hot and dry conditions have persisted across most of the West and High Plains, providing no drought relief. Chances for rain have been limited in this area of the U.S. due to the jet stream pattern, which has produced a dominant upper-level ridge of high pressure over the area.

In addition, the Southwest monsoon was very weak this summer, and hot, dry conditions prevailed across the region.

It's not all bad news though. Portions of western Oregon, northwestern Iowa, Vermont, New Hampshire have experienced some drought improvement over the past week due to recent rainfall.

Several cold fronts will bring cooler temperatures along with some wet weather across the northern tier into the Midwest during the second half of October. Rain is also expected in parts of the East at times during the next couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, below-average precipitation is likely for parts of the West, including the Four Corners region and Northern California, meaning no drought relief is ahead in the short term.

La Niña May Influence Precipitation Pattern This Winter

La Niña has developed and is expected to last through the winter, which can impact temperature and precipitation patterns in the United States. However, it is important to note that La Niña, El Nino or the lack of either, is just one piece of the atmospheric puzzle.

La Niña is the periodic cooling of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean. When sea-surface temperatures are cooler than average by at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 degrees Celsius), along with consistent atmospheric indications for at least three consecutive months, La Niña is considered to be present.

There are some general weather trends frequently found in a La Niña winter in the Lower 48, according to NOAA:

-The southern U.S. experiences above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation.

-The northern U.S. experiences below-average temperatures (particularly the Northern Plains and Northwest) and above-average precipitation.

These themes develop due to the upper-level pattern that often dominates during La Niñas. The most frequent weather pattern includes an upper-level ridge of high pressure near the Aleutians, which pushes the jet stream northward over Alaska and then southward to near the U.S./Canada border. This keeps colder air across the northern tier. The storm track is also a bit farther north, leaving the South dry and warm.

(MORE: Winter 2020-21 Temperature Outlook)

The wetter trend across portions of the northern tier is expected to bring some drought relief and drought removal to parts of the Northwest and Northeast through the end of January, according to the latest outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Unfortunately, drought conditions are anticipated to persist and expand through December from California into parts of the Plains, Midwest and possibly parts of the Southeast.

In general, drought conditions may worsen or develop in southern parts of the U.S. during the upcoming winter as a warmer and drier trend is anticipated.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.