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Although November is expected to start cold for many in the Lower 48, warmer than average temperatures are still anticipated across much of the northern tier into the Southwest for the rest of the month.

Temperatures will be above average in the Northeast, particularly in New England, and from Wyoming southward to Arizona and New Mexico this November according to an updated outlook released Friday by The Weather Company, an IBM Business. Slightly above-average temperatures will extend into parts of the Plains, Northern Rockies and the upper Midwest.

Cooler than average conditions are expected for much of the Southeast from Mississippi to the Carolinas, while much of the West Coast, mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley and portions of the southern Plains, Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula may trend near to slightly cooler than average in November.

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A large portion of this forecast can be accredited to the development of La Niña.

La Niña is the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters, which depending on its strength, can influence weather patterns across the globe, including in the U.S.

Above-average temperatures are typical across much of the Lower 48 in November when La Niña has developed. This is especially true in the Plains from Texas to the Dakotas to Wisconsin.

Only the southern Florida Peninsula tends to have a cooler than average November in a La Niña year.

However, this November could be an exception to typical La Niña trends.

"The forecast would represent the coldest La Nina November since 2010," said Todd Crawford, director of meteorology at Atmospheric G2.

Early November models show the cold start to the month.

Current models depict an upper-level trough, or southward dip of the jet stream, over a good chunk of the Lower 48, indicating cooler than average temperatures. A ridge or northward bulge in the jet stream is also likely over parts of the West at times, suggesting warmer than average temperatures.

These models helped play a role in the current forecast for November.

"We've made colder adjustments to the November forecast to more closely align with our current 6-15 day and sub-seasonal forecasts," Crawford said.

This pattern change early in the month is expected to be temporary, according to computer forecast models.

Typical November Temperatures

Cold temperatures become more common across the northern tier of the U.S. in November, with average highs dropping into the 30s and 40s.

In the South, 60s are typical highs in November, with 70s in the Desert Southwest, near the Gulf Coast and the northern two-thirds of Florida. South Florida typically enjoys 80s for highs.

November lows typically plunge into the 20s and 30s in the north, with teens in the Rockies and northern Plains.

Lows in the South usually bottom out in the 40s, with 50s near the Gulf Coast and 60s in central and South Florida.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.