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Much of the U.S. could be ringing in the new year with milder-than-average temperatures, according to the latest outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Near-average to slightly warmer temperatures are expected across the majority of the Lower 48 from New England to California for the first three months of 2022.

Areas from central and southern Texas into parts of Georgia have the highest chance of above-average temperatures from January through March. Elsewhere, areas from the Four Corners to the rest of the Southeast and into the mid-Atlantic could also see above-average temperatures.

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Areas from the Pacific Northwest and California coast into the Northern Plains and upper Midwest are the only parts of the Lower 48 that may see a colder than average January through March. Parts of Oregon and Washington into North Dakota have the highest chance of seeing below-average temperatures.

Let's break down the start of the new year, month by month.

January

In January, temperatures will be slightly above average across most of the southern tier, with the farthest-above-average temperatures stretching from the Four Corners to the Carolinas.

Areas from northeastern Montana into North Dakota and northern Wisconsin are expected to experience temperatures the farthest below average during what is usually the coldest month of the year.

February

Most of the U.S. could experience warmer-than-average temperatures in February, and temperatures will be the most above average from Texas into much of Florida and northward into southern Virginia.

Near-average or cooler temperatures are anticipated from the West Coast into the northern Great Lakes. Temperatures will be the farthest below average across parts of the Pacific Northwest into northern North Dakota, especially parts of Washington state.

March

The majority of the Lower 48 will see near-average to above-average temperatures in March. Temperatures are expected to be the most above average from New Mexico into the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast and Ohio Valley.

Near-average or cooler temperatures are anticipated across portions of the California coast into the Northern Rockies and parts of the Dakotas. Temperatures will be the farthest below average across parts of the Pacific Northwest into Montana.

What's Behind the Outlook?

Much of the forecast is driven by a developing La Niña. As seen in the map below, La Niña is the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters, which can influence weather patterns across the globe, including in the U.S.

La Niña's typical influence is a colder northern and western U.S. and warmer South and East, especially in January and February.

However, La Niña is not the only factor to consider.

When the polar vortex is strong or weak, the expected pattern during a La Niña (or El Niño) can change.

Last winter, the polar vortex was weak, and even though La Niña was in place, temperatures across the U.S. were closer to what's expected during an El Niño winter – colder in the central and eastern U.S.

December has had a notably strong polar vortex, causing record-warm temperatures across much of the central and southern U.S.

According to Crawford, there could be a slight weakening of the polar vortex at the end of December, which could last into early January. If a weaker vortex persists, temperatures could cool slightly across portions of the central and eastern U.S. However, if the polar vortex restrengthens, even more record warmth could continue in the new year.

This is following what could be the warmest La Niña December in recorded history. If La Niña conditions continue, the remainder of winter could be drier than average for many.

As we head into spring, early heat and drought conditions are already a concern across much of the Plains and into the Southeast, according to Dr. Todd Crawford, director of meteorology at Atmospheric G2.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.