Just In: Your Fall Temperature Outlook

It may not feel much like fall this year for portions of the West and the northern tier of the Lower 48, where warmer than average temperatures are expected in the coming months.

Temperatures will be the most above average from September through November from northern Utah into eastern Montana and western North Dakota, according to the latest outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2. Much of the West, Midwest and Northeast can also expect warmer-than-average temperatures this fall.

Along the West Coast and from southern Arizona and New Mexico into parts of the Southern Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, temperatures will likely be near average to slightly warmer.

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Areas of the United States that could trend slightly cooler than average are the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast.

La Niña - an important factor in the fall temperature outlook - is expected to persist through the fall and into the winter.

"Given continuing La Niña conditions, we expect another anomalously warm October/November," noted Todd Crawford, director of meteorology at Atmospheric G2.

La Niña is the periodic cooling of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean. When sea-surface temperatures are cooler than average by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit), along with consistent atmospheric indications for at least three consecutive months, La Niña is present.

September

An upper-level pattern change has recently emerged across the Lower 48 with the most anomalous heat encompassing parts of the Northwest and Northeast, while much of the southern tier has trended cooler. This pattern is generally expected to persist into September.

Temperatures will be the farthest above average from the Great Basin into the Northwest, the northern Rockies and parts of the Northern Plains. Above-average temperatures are also anticipated in the Northeast as fall begins.

The rest of the East Coast into the Midwest, Central Plains and portions of the Southwest will find temperatures near average to slightly warmer. Much of the South, however, will experience conditions near average to slightly cooler.

One thing to note about the September forecast: as tropical activity increases, that adds a bit of uncertainty.

October

The area where the most anomalous warmth is forecast will shift into the Northern Plains and upper Midwest in October.

Warmer-than-average conditions will stretch from the Northeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley and the Rockies, while near average to slightly warmer temperatures are expected from California into much of Texas and parts of the Southeast.

Parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast may experience temperatures near average to slightly cooler once again, along with the Northwest coast.

November

The focus of the warmer-than-average temperatures will be in the West as fall comes to a close. Above-average temperatures will also extend into much of the Plains and the upper Mississippi Valley.

The East will trend near to either side of average, with the Southeast more likely to have temperatures slightly cooler compared to average.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.