Temperature Outlook For The Rest Of The Year

F​all officially begins Thursday, but for many in the U.S., this transition season into the start of winter could be marked by warmer-than-average temperatures for the final three months of 2022.

T​emperatures from October to December as a whole are expected to be above average from the Mountain West into the Plains and Midwest, according to an outlook released Saturday by The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2. Portions of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains might have temperatures that are most above what's typical for this three-month period.

E​lsewhere, the forecast calls for most areas of the Deep South to the Northeast, as well as the West Coast, to see temperatures that are close to average.

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Keep in mind this outlook is an overall three-month trend. We will likely see periods that are hotter or cooler in each respective region of the country when compared to what is shown.

O​ctober

Much of the nation's northern tier, except for the Pacific Northwest, is forecast to see warmer-than-average temperatures for the first full month of fall. Areas from the Rockies into the Northern Plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes could have temperatures most above average.

"Given good agreement between dynamical and statistical models, and the La Niña base state, there is no reason to expect anything but more anomalous warmth in October," said Dr. Todd Crawford, director of meteorology at Atmospheric G2.

T​his forecast doesn't mean there won't be bursts of the cool, dry air that fall is famous for in these areas. But it could result in the peak of fall foliage colors being slightly delayed in some locations, and any hints of early-season snowflakes could be harder to find this year.

A​s for the rest of the country, much of the South and West Coast should see temperatures that are close to the average for October.

N​ovember And December

Overall, the forecasts for November and December look very similar.

The core of the most above-average temperatures is expected to be centered from portions of the Rockies and Southwest into the adjacent Plains.

A​ larger area from just inland of the West Coast into the rest of the Plains and Mississippi Valley could also see above-average temperatures.

T​he East is largely expected to see temperatures close to average.

Portions of the Southeast could have temperatures tilted slightly cooler than average in November. This is also true for the eastern Great Lakes and northern New England in December.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.