World's First Chief Heat Officer's Tips

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A pattern change is beginning to bring widespread and welcome changes to the nation's weather, but don't expect it to last too long.

T​he recent pattern has been right out of a meteorologist's textbook for early spring.

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The jet stream has taken a sharp southward plunge along or near the West Coast, then surged east into the Plains and Midwest, while a dome of high pressure has persisted near the Gulf Coast or Florida. And you can see the result in the map below: outbreaks of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, record heat and a storm parade from the West to the upper Midwest and East.

We expect that pattern to change, particularly in the West, into the Easter holiday weekend, when a ridge of high pressure aloft pushes the jet stream into the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, while the jet also takes a subtle southward slide into the Midwest and East.

L​et's list the main impacts of this change. Then we'll go into how long this changed pattern may last.

Severe Breather

Severe weather will finally take a break after several rounds of rough weather the past couple of weeks, as cooler, drier air is pulled southward.

A​ny thunderstorms Friday into the weekend should be confined to the Deep South and Gulf Coast. Soaking rain is the main concern there.

W​e can't rule out a few showers in parts of the Midwest and Plains Sunday into Monday. But we certainly don't expect severe thunderstorms in these storm-fatigued areas.

Snow Fatigue Treatment

Record snowpack is in place in parts of the Southwest, including Utah and parts of California.

T​hose winter-fatigued areas will likely love the map below.

Little to no snowfall is in the forecast from the Southwest to the Dakotas, Minnesota and the northern Great Lakes into early next week.

Temperatures will also finally warm up in many of these areas.

Record Heat, And Some Drought Relief

Cooler air arrives for more of the South beginning Thursday after several days of summer-like highs in the upper 80s or low 90s. That will be followed by rain and thunderstorms lasting into the weekend when a frontal system stalls across the South.

That heat relief will finally arrive in the sweaty Florida Peninsula early next week. That will bring a better chance of showers and storms beginning Easter weekend, but rain in Florida is sorely needed given the worsening drought at the tail end of the state's dry season.

How Long Will This Pattern Change Last?

Not very long.

C​omputer forecast models are suggesting this pattern will flop right back to a somewhat stormier pattern by the latter half of next week.

T​his could bring at least some more snow to the mountain West, including California, though it remains unclear whether it will also deliver any significant rain to lower elevations of California and the Southwest.

It could also open the door for more severe thunderstorms in parts of the central U.S. later next week, though the magnitude of that also remains unclear, partially due to a stubborn cutoff low over the Southeast that could impede the flow of more humid air from the Gulf of Mexico.

S​o enjoy what may be a brief break in the storm parade.

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