Fall Temperature Forecast

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F​all could start with summer's leftover hot temperatures in parts of the nation's heat-fatigued southern tier as the northern and eastern U.S. see temperatures that are pretty typical of fall for the next three months.

Here's the big picture for fall (September through November): Temperatures will be above average from California and Oregon eastward to the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast and Florida, according to the latest outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2. Southeast Arizona to southern New Mexico and southwestern Texas could be the hottest when compared to average.

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M​uch of the East Coast westward to the Midwest and the far Northwest will have temperatures that are near average or slightly above.

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Since this outlook is an overall three-month trend, there will likely be periods that are warmer or colder in each respective region of the country when compared to what is shown above.

With that in mind, let's dig into the month-by-month details to see how some of those temperature fluctuations might play out.

S​eptember features a contrast between summerlike heat and teases of fall. Temperatures are predicted to be most above average from southern Louisiana westward to Texas and the Southwest. All of those areas have already endured a brutally hot summer.

S​omewhat cooler than average temperatures are possible from the upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and Northeast. That means some early-season cold fronts could be in the cards.

"Given the latest guidance, we’ve made some sizable changes to the September forecast towards warmer outcomes in the western U.S. and cooler outcomes in the Northeast," said Dr. Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2.

That forecast assumes there will be some recurving tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic that help induce a southward dip in the jet stream that keeps the Northeast cooler, according to Crawford.

October could see a shift in the warm versus cooler areas. Parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast might trend warmer than average in the second month of fall. Much of the southern U.S. is also expected to be warmer than average.

T​he only area where somewhat cooler than average temperatures are favored is in the Northern Plains and upper Midwest.

N​ovember could be mild for most of the U.S. Much of the western two-thirds of the nation is favored to have above average temperatures in fall's final month. Most of the East will be near average or slightly above.

T​hat doesn't mean it won't feel like fall, but rather temperatures will be somewhat warmer than what's typical in the month.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.