Very Different Weather This Christmas

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T​emperatures leading up to Christmas this year are expected to be opposite from the same time last year when much of the U.S. went into a deep freeze.

The o​utlook shows a mild temperature pattern could dominate the U.S.: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said temperatures were likely to be above average for much of the Lower 48 from Dec. 21 to 27 in its forecast issued Wednesday. The mild temperature pattern could lower the chance of a white Christmas this year in parts of the country.

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(​MORE: White Christmas Historical Chances)

Pacific air is fueling the mild pattern: When upper-level winds across the U.S. generally flow in a flat west-to-east fashion, it typically prevents any major cold intrusions from pushing into the Lower 48. That's what forecast model guidance is showing as we approach Christmas, which means warmer air from the Pacific Ocean will dominate instead of any cold blasts from the Arctic region.

(192-hours: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

H​ere's how this is different from a year ago: Last year, a sharp southward plunge of the jet stream ushered in a historically cold arctic air mass throughout much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation as well as parts of the Rockies. You can see the big north-to-south nosedive the jet stream took last year around Christmas in the image below.

H​ere are some notables from last year's blast of arctic air:

-C​heyenne, Wyoming, saw its temperature plunge 40 degrees colder in 30 minutes on Dec. 21. That broke the city's record for its largest temperature drop in an hour or less.

-Elk Park, Montana, recorded the coldest temperature (minus 50 degrees) and wind chill (minus 74) anywhere in the Lower 48 on Dec. 22. Minus 50-degree cold typically happens in Montana every other winter.

-​Denver saw its coldest air in a generation on Dec. 22 when the temperature dropped to minus 24 degrees, which was the coldest the city has seen since Dec. 22, 1990.

-​Wichita, Kansas, had its coldest wind chill (minus 32 degrees) this century.

-​Nashville, Tennessee, dropped below zero for the first time in over 26 years.

-​Atlanta (Dec. 24) and New York City (Dec. 23 and 24) both saw their low temperatures drop into the single digits. It was Atlanta's first single-digit low since January 2014.

-​The cold air, combined with heavy snow and strong winds, contributed to a deadly blizzard in Buffalo, New York, and Mobile Bay along the Gulf Coast of Alabama partially froze over.

Fingerprints of El Niño's influence are contributing to the milder December pattern this year: Much of the country has seen above-average temperatures for the start of December as a whole. The mildest areas are from the Great Lakes into the upper Midwest, Northern Plains and northern Rockies, where the first 10 days of the month were 5 or more degrees above average, according to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

I​t's many of those same areas that tend to be warmer-than-average during winters with a strong El Niño like the one we are in now.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.

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