Outlook: January 2024

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January could bring much warmer than average conditions across much of the central United States, according to an updated outlook released Friday by The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2.

W​armer-than-average temperatures are most likely in the Midwest, Plains and West: An area from far eastern Montana to western Wisconsin has the highest likelihood of far-above-average temperatures this January.

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Other parts of the Plains and West are also favored to be above average.

However, medium range models are suggesting a cold second week of January, leading to some forecast uncertainty according to Dr. Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2.

Parts of the southern tier could see cooler-than-average temperatures: Areas from central Texas into Florida and parts of the Carolinas have the greatest chance of experiencing temperatures colder than average in January. The rest of the southern U.S. may trend near to slightly cooler than average. Swings in temperature, both cold and warm, could zero out when you take the month as a whole.

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

The Southeast could have a wet month as the central U.S. stays dry: Parts of the Gulf Coast into the mid-Atlantic are most likely to have wetter-than-average conditions this January.

The Southeast typically has wetter-than-average winters during El Niño.

Much of the central U.S. has a high chance of below-average precipitation.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.