Polar Vortex Strengthens, Most Of The Country Warms To Start 2026

Here’s Your January To March Outlook

It is now likely that the coldest period of sustained cold weather is behind us after gripping the Eastern U.S. for the first part of December. Warmer temperatures are expected for Christmas and into the early part of 2026 for the South and East. The ongoing flip to cooler and wetter weather for the North and Northwest is also likely to stick around.

(MORE: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Highlights for January to March 2026:

• January is likely to be a continuation of the end-of-December pattern featuring above-average warmth across much of the southern two-thirds of the country.

• February could feature the warmest relative to average weather along the East Coast.

• The stratospheric polar vortex is likely to strengthen in the beginning of the new year. This means that extended rounds of cold air are less likely, although storm systems will bring wetter, cooler weather from time to time.

• Without a larger weather feature in play like the polar vortex, conditions are likely to look a lot like La Niña: warmer than average across the southern tier and cooler than average across the northern tier.

• This forecast is slightly warmer than last year for the first three months of the year.

• Wetter-than-average conditions are likely across the northern U.S., while drier-than-average conditions are more likely across the southern U.S.

Monthly Outlooks:

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 9 years. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.