Forecast

Election Day 2014 Forecast: Will Weather Help Determine Senate Control?

Tuesday's 2014 midterm elections will determine which party gains control of the U.S. Senate, and weather may factor into the results.

According to polling data from realclearpolitics.com, Senate races in 11 states are either toss-ups or only lean toward either the Republican or Democratic candidate heading into the election.

Research commissioned by The Weather Channel prior to the 2012 Presidential election found clear links between Election Day turnout and bad weather. Among them:

- In bad weather, Republican supporters are more likely to vote.

- Decided voters are almost twice as likely to vote in bad weather as undecided voters.

- Icy roads are the biggest weather impediment to voters age 55 and older, impacting roughly 1 in 8 such voters.

- Those with income levels less than $50,000 a year are less likely to vote on a bad weather day than those making more than $50,000 a year.

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"Where the weather is okay this year the Democrats won't necessarily get a bump -- they just won't have to deal with the drag on turnout," said Paul Walsh, business weather expert at The Weather Channel and CNBC.

A recent paper discussed in the Pacific Standard found that bad weather's impact on the electorate's mood favors the safe choice of incumbents, not necessarily candidates from one party, and doesn't necessarily suppress turnout.

With that in mind, let's break down the conditions to see if weather may impact any of the 11 tight Senate race states.

Election Day Forecast

Inclement weather has only been a significant concern in one of the 11 close Senate race states: Arkansas.

A band of rain with embedded thunderstorms has been slowly spreading across the Natural State Tuesday. Most of the rain has been in northern, western, and central Arkansas. Temperatures have been stuck in the 50s in many of these areas.

(FORECAST: Little Rock | Fayetteville | Ft. Smith | Jonesboro)

Far southeast Arkansas, however, missed out on the rain and saw temperatures reach the 70s. That said, southeast Arkansas is the least populated region of the state. NBC News has projected that Republican candidate Tom Cotton is the winner of that state's Senate race.

Rain reached western Kentucky late in the day as polls closed there. NBC News has already projected that Republican Mitch McConnell has retained his Senate seat there.

Some light snow has been falling in parts of Alaska's interior and its sparsely populated Arctic coast Tuesday. Alaskans can vote up to 15 days prior to Election Day, and half the state's population lives in Anchorage, where the weather is quiet. As a result, weather may not have much of an impact there.

(FORECAST: Anchorage | Juneau)

In Louisiana, some rain has moved into the northwest corner of the state, including Shreveport. Polls close in Louisiana at 8 p.m. CST.

(FORECAST: Shreveport | New Orleans)

Otherwise, weather in the remaining eight states with tight Senate races shouldn't play a significant role. Mostly sunny skies were the rule in most of the East, thanks to weak high pressure. Dry, seasonable weather has been in place in Iowa, Kansas, and Colorado.

(FORECAST: Wichita | Des Moines | Denver)

"On net, and based on the research we and others have done, it looks like weather for this year's mid-term elections will be favoring the Republican candidates," says Walsh.