Florida Wildfire Brings Flames To Edge Of I-75

Florida is suffering its worst drought in at least 25 years, and with only little short-term relief expected, the state could experience a spring of wildfires, stressed crops and water shortages through the rest of the dry season.

Drought Status

The latest Drought Monitor analysis from NOAA and the National Drought Mitigation Center below shows virtually the entire state of Florida in at least some degree of drought.

That's the most widespread drought in the Sunshine State since April 2012, according to the analysis.

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But about two-thirds of the state is classified as in "extreme" drought, shown by the darker red contours in the map below. That's the most serious drought in Florida since spring 2001.

The drought also extends through much of the Southeast, from southern Alabama to the mid-Atlantic states, and also from Texas and Louisiana to the Midwest.

It has been one of the driest winters on record in parts of the Southeast, including Florida, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center. This is a classic signature of a La Niña winter in the South.

Impacts

This parched ground with dried out vegetation from both a lack of rain and recent freezes has been fuel for wildfires in recent days, including a large one burning in the Everglades, as well as other fires in Louisiana and Texas. Outdoor burn bans are in effect in multiple Florida counties.

Farmers in Levy County reported current conditions are the worst in at least 20 years, and some crop losses have been reported, according to the National Weather Service.

Water shortage warnings were issued by the South Florida Water Management District for parts of South Florida, including Miami-Dade County.

Some Rain Through Saturday

Rain and a few thunderstorms will sag through the Southeast through Saturday.

Some areas may pick up over an inch of rain, particularly from the Carolinas to Alabama.

Northern and Central Florida have the best chance of picking up an inch of rain, with showers becoming more hit-or-miss by the time they reach South Florida.

This will be a little short-term relief, but won't do much to replenish the lack of soil moisture or lower groundwater levels built up over months.

Dry March?

More soaking rain could fall from Texas to the Ohio Valley in several rounds beginning Tuesday into the first weekend of March. Those locally heavy soakings could end up being a little too much of a good thing for that area of drought, potentially triggering flash flooding in spots.

But that wetter pattern likely won't make it to Florida, and that could be a harbinger of March, overall.

The latest March outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has most of Florida skewing drier than average.

Given Florida's dry season typically lasts into mid-May, that could mean more water restrictions, stressed crops and a dangerous rash of wildfires in the Sunshine State this spring.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.