Astronomers Explain NASA's 2032 Asteroid Projections

NASA Keeps Changing The Odds Of Asteroid Hit

NASA scientists said Monday there is "no significant potential" for Asteroid 2024 YR4 to hit Earth in the next century.

T​he updated prediction comes after additional observations, and weeks of back and forth.

On Feb. 18, NASA scientists predicted a 3.1% chance of the asteroid hitting our planet on Dec. 22, 2032.

T​hen the odds dropped to about 1.5%.

T​hen, in an update a couple of days later, they dropped the chance of impact again, this time to a scant .28%

S​o what gives?

W​e talked to two astronomers to break down some of the complexities behind tracking asteroids, and shed some light on whether we should be worried.

T​racking Asteroid 2024 YR4

"We are regularly finding small rocks and small asteroids that are on a path to hit our planet," Pamela Gay, senior scientist at the Planetary Science Institute, said. "But this object is actually about the same size as a 747 give or take."

It was spotted in December.

"When we first discover an asteroid, we just see it as this point of light that is moving across the sky," Gay said. "We don't know exactly how large it is. And we figure all of these things out by watching the movement, and then matching what orbits can possibly match what we're seeing happening in the sky."

The asteroid will be visible to scientists using massive telescopes until April. The James Webb Space Telescope will get a peek, too. Then it won't be visible again from our planet until 2028.

"It ends up closest to the Earth about every 4 years, but 'closest' has a whole lot of variation," Gay said.

T​hat brings us to 2032.

S​hould We Be Worried About The Asteroid Hitting Earth?

"For something like that to hit the Earth is very, very rare," said Stephan Martin, an astronomer who worked on the Hubble telescope. "It doesn't happen more than once in every few million years or a dozen million years. So I wouldn't lose any sleep over this."

I​n fact, as of Thursday, the asteroid had a greater chance of hitting the moon than it did Earth. Granted, the odds of that were also low at just 1%.

"In 2032, when it has a chance of attacking us, it's probably going to actually pass about 100,000 to 200,000 kilometers away," Gay said when we talked to her Thursday morning.

T​hat's between about 60,000 and 120,000 miles.

I​f An Asteroid Did Head Toward Earth, Could We Stop It?

M​aybe.

A​n experimental NASA mission called DART, short for Double Asteroid Redirection Test, successfully nudged the path of an asteroid in space in 2022. It was the first such test of its kind.

S​cientists and different space groups are already kicking around the idea of intercepting YR4.

"This is why we did the DART mission," Gay said. "It was to confirm that we have the ability to keep our world safe if we need to."

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Weather.com senior writer Jan Childs covers breaking news and features related to weather, space, climate change, the environment and everything in between.