Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast: Rain Chances To Persist Through Race Day On Saturday

The Kentucky Derby forecast is looking wet, even after rounds of rain for other festivities this week, including the Kentucky Oaks race Friday.

Churchill Downs in Louisville hosted a string of events this week, including the Kentucky Oaks race on Friday, leading up to the 151st running of the big race around 6:57 p.m. ET.

(MORE: Latest Louisville Forecast Details)

Derby Concerns

Earlier this week, the forecast thinking was any rainfall would clear Louisville by Saturday.

However, that forecast trended wetter. Steady rain is possible in the morning and early afternoon, followed by continued chances for hit-or-miss showers or thunderstorms through the late afternoon and evening. Given the scattered nature of the showers, it's uncertain whether it will be raining or not when the race begins in the early evening.

If you're headed to the race, you'll need to bring rain gear, in case showers move through.

Given the past few days of rain, we certainly don't expect a fast track Saturday, as has been in place the last five races in a row.

The last track deemed "sloppy" due to rain was in 2019, when about a third of an inch of rain fell. The previous year, over 3 inches of rain fell on May 5, 2018.

Behind the cold front, we also expect seasonably cool temperatures Saturday, with highs generally holding in the low 60s.

(MORE: How Weather Can Affect Horses At The Kentucky Derby)

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.