Tropics Terminology: What You Need To Know

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Hurricane Rafael is spinning in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and will track westward, the possibly southward into next week while likely weakening.

(​PERSPECTIVE: Seasons That Have Reached 11 Hurricanes)

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Future path in the Gulf: Rafael is expected to remain a hurricane through at least Friday as it tracks slowly toward the central Gulf of Mexico. Dry air, some wind shear and decreasing Gulf heat content will induce some gradual weakening during that time.

Increased wind shear and drier air could further weaken Rafael through early next week, depending on its exact track.

W​ill Rafael impact any other land areas? There are a few different scenarios for Rafael's future track, but none of them will likely result in significant impacts for the U.S. Gulf Coast.

1. The most likely outcome is that Rafael stays far enough south while holding onto some strength before eventually drifting southwestward toward the Mexican Gulf Coast next week.
2. Rafael could also completely fizzle in the western Gulf early next week and bring no direct impacts to land other than high surf and rip currents.
3. There also remains a chance Rafael in a much weakened form, or its remnants, could get pulled north along a cold front and enhance rain along northern U.S. Gulf.

(​MORE: Why Rafael Isn't Expected To Be Another Helene Or Milton)

C​heck back to weather.com and The Weather Channel app for the latest forecast updates.

Rafael's history: Tropical Depression Eighteen formed Monday and then strengthened into Tropical Storm Rafael later in the day.

R​afael gradually intensified into a hurricane as it tracked near Cayman Brac and Little Cayman late Tuesday.

The hurricane then rapidly intensified into a Category 3 with 115 mph winds early Wednesday afternoon as it approached Cuba. R​afael was the Atlantic's fifth Category 3 or stronger hurricane this season, joining Beryl, Helene, Kirk and Milton.

(​PERSPECTIVE: Rapid Intensification Is More Common Than You Think)

It made landfall in western Cuba's Artemisa province near Playa Majana just over 3 hours later, according to to the National Hurricane Center. Up to 71 mph winds were clocked in Havana.

R​afael brushed the Florida Keys with wind gusts up to 53 mph, locally over 2 inches of rainfall and battering waves.