First Major 2025 Hurricane Season Outlook Released: Slightly Above Average Activity Expected

CSU Forecasts Active Hurricane Season

Early tropical symptoms suggest a slightly more active Atlantic hurricane season than average is ahead. However, the season could be a slight step down from 2024, which hosted hurricanes Helene and Milton and had major impacts in Florida and the Appalachians.

The first outlook: Colorado State University's tropical meteorology project team is forecasting 17 storms, nine of which will become hurricanes and four of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, in their first outlook for 2025 released Thursday.

That is slightly above the 30-year average tally for both hurricanes and storms, and also near the tally of 18 storms, 11 hurricanes and five Cat 3-plus hurricanes in 2024.

Lack Of El Niño, Plus Possibility of La Niña: The lack of a hurricane-suppressing El Niño is anticipated for all of this upcoming hurricane season. There is a moderate chance of La Niña conditions during the heart of hurricane season (August through October), according to the latest forecasts from NOAA. This is the reason for the slightly elevated hurricane season activity.

The phase of El Niño vs. La Niña is one of the strongest influences on hurricane season activity.

(MORE: What Is La Niña?)

In general, La Niña Atlantic hurricane seasons have less wind shear that can otherwise rip storms apart, and more rising, unstable air that is more conducive for thunderstorms, the building blocks of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Neutral conditions – when water temperatures don’t have much effect on global patterns – may remain in place through much of hurricane season and could limit any influence, especially early in the season.

(MORE: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Water Temperatures Remain Warm, But Not Across The Board: The Gulf and Caribbean are slightly warmer than average but are cooler than they were this time last year. These regions, combined with the subtropical Atlantic, are where we look for early-season activity.

More significantly, water temperatures in the eastern Atlantic, including parts of the region known as the Main Development Region (MDR), are closer to average, if not slightly cooler, and substantially cooler than last year.

The MDR is the primary host location for hurricanes that threaten the U.S. and Caribbean during the peak of hurricane season. Should this lukewarm to cooler water stick around several months from now, it would be a major speed bump for tropical development in that region.

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Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com for 8 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.