Tropical Development Chances Near Southeast Coast Diminish, But Heavy Rain Threat Remains

The National Hurricane Center has been tracking an area off the Southeast coast for a chance of tropical or subtropical development the past few days, but the odds of that happening have now diminished. However, a threat of heavy rainfall will remain in play from Florida into the Carolinas.

What We Are Tracking

A weather disturbance that has already brought stormy conditions to Florida will spread toward the coastal Carolinas and the offshore waters of the Southeast coast through the end of the week.

The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring this system since Monday for a low chance that it could develop tropical or subtropical characteristics. In an update Wednesday morning the NHC said that chance has diminished to 0% since low pressure is expected to form inland over the Carolinas as opposed to over the waters off the Southeast coast.

Heavy rain will still be concern in spots despite the fact tropical or subtropical development is not expected.

Areas from Florida to the eastern Carolinas could see pockets of heavy rain through Wednesday night.

Rainfall from this system will exit the Southeast coastline on Friday as the system moves east.

Beaches on the Southeast coast could also see choppy surf and a risk of rip currents, so take heed of warnings if you are headed to the beach.

Typical For This Time Of Year

This region is no stranger to tropical development for the month of June. Parts of the Caribbean, Gulf and Southeast coast are all common areas for development this time of year, as shown shaded in yellow below.

So the good news is, this is nothing out of the ordinary.

Caitlin Kaiser graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with both an undergraduate and graduate degree in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences before starting her career as a digital meteorologist with weather.com.