The National Hurricane Center has slightly increased the chance for tropical development as they continue to monitor an area either side of Florida and up the Carolina coast. There's a medium chance for this area to develop tropical or subtropical characteristics sometime over the upcoming Fourth of July holiday weekend. While there is a medium chance as of now, parts of the Sunshine State will be in for a stormy pattern over several days regardless.

The Setup: A "cold" front will work its way into the Southeast and Florida during the next few days, where it will eventually stall. Sometimes when dying fronts like this stall over the waters of the Gulf and off the Southeast coast, one or more areas of low pressure can develop and make an attempt at forming into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm.

(MORE: 5 Ways Tropical Storms Can Form)

Weather in your inbox

Forecast Location

Sign Up

By signing up you agree to the Terms & Privacy Policy. Unsubscribe at any time.

Don't get too excited about the words "cold front" if you're south of Interstate 10. No cold air is coming in during July, but for some, there may be some drier air temporarily from the Florida panhandle northward.

To the South, more rain is in the forecast, regardless of tropical development.

Timing And Development Chances: There will be an opportunity for further development of the stalling cold front across Florida, but the chance of tropical or subtropical development is overall relatively low at this point. That's because it's uncertain whether any organized area of low pressure will form in the area above. For now, just keep up to date on the forecast for possible changes to this thinking over the next few days.

Impacts Are Expected, Regardless: Numerous showers and storms in and around Florida and the Southeast this week and the stalling front will add to the wet pattern late this week into the weekend. Rain chances will generally fall outside of Florida as the cold front sinks into the sunshine state through Thursday.

These thunderstorms will initially post eastward or northeastward across the Florida peninsula, but may come in several rounds or bands and could be more persistent than the typical afternoon and evening thunderstorm.

If a low pressure system develops, some onshore winds and rainfall could redevelop late this week along the Southeast Coast.

The beach forecast this holiday weekend will be touch and go, with off and on showers and storms lingering across much of the state. Rip currents will be possible through the holiday weekend.

Areas from the Big Bend to the Tampa Bay area could see multi-inch rainfall totals from Wednesday through Sunday.

This means many Fourth of July barbecues, beach trips and other outdoor activities in this region may need a plan B just in case. Again, these thunderstorms could be more persistent than usual.

With many people heading to the beach for the 4th of July weekend, check back often for forecast updates as we continue to track this area of possible development.

Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world's biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.