National Hurricane Center Watching Areas For Tropical Development | Weather.com
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The typical August awakening of hurricane season has arrived. Here is what you need to know about these areas that could see tropical development in the next week or so.

Jonathan Erdman
ByJonathan Erdman7 hours ago

Hurricane Season Ramps Up Now — What To Know

The National Hurricane Center has their eyes on multiple areas for possible tropical development in the Atlantic Basin after Tropical Storm Dexter fizzles.

Area #1: Near Southeast US Coast

- Weak low pressure is a few hundred miles off the Southeast U.S. coast.

- It's expected to drift north before turning northeastward and out to sea. If it sprouts enough thunderstorms, it could become a tropical depression or storm late this week or this weekend.

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- Given its increasingly offshore trend, the main indirect impact of this system appears to be high surf and rip currents along much of the East Coast through this weekend, especially from southeast New England to North Carolina.

(MORE: How To Spot And Survive A Rip Current)

The possible area(s) of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook are shown by polygons, color-coded by the chance of development over the next seven days. An "X" indicates the location of a current disturbance. Any active storms are shown by a tropical storm symbol and its corresponding forecast path.

Tropical Development Potential

Area #2: Eastern Atlantic

- An area of lower pressure called a tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, with showers becoming increasingly clustered.

- It has some initial dry air to fend off in its path, but it could develop into a depression or storm by this weekend east of the Lesser Antilles.

- While still some uncertainty, the majority of computer forecast models suggest this system is expected to curl north of the Leeward Islands this weekend into the central Atlantic by early next week. For now, this system does not appear to be a threat to the U.S. mainland.

(MORE: What Is A Tropical Wave?)

The possible area(s) of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook are shown by polygons, color-coded by the chance of development over the next seven days. An "X" indicates the location of a current disturbance. Any active storms are shown by a tropical storm symbol and its corresponding forecast path.

Tropical Development Potential

More To Come

- Dexter continues to move away from the U.S. over the North Atlantic, and is expected to transition to a non-tropical low by Thursday, if not sooner.

The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.

Current Storm Info And Projected Path

- As has been the case the past few weeks, we'll keep an eye out for any low pressure that may form along a stationary front waffling over the eastern Gulf. There aren't any strong model indications at the moment, but we'll watch it.

- The parade of disturbances known as tropical waves will continue off the African coast, as it always does in hurricane season.

- One of those tropical waves is due to move off the African coast around Saturday.

- With an environment of warm water, low wind shear, and gradually increasing moisture, this next tropical wave could eventually develop by early-mid next week between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

- This next tropical system could eventually pose a threat somewhere in the Caribbean as soon as the weekend of August 16-17, though it's far too soon to know any particulars this far out in time.

- Now is the time to make sure your hurricane plan is ready to go, before a storm threatens.

- The next tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin will be named Erin, then Fernand.

(MORE: Hurricane Season's Main Event: Why August Typically Kicks Off The Atlantic's Most Active Time)

trop_origins_august.jpg

August's favored named storm formation areas.

(Data: National Hurricane Center)

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.