The Latest Update About The Upcoming El Niño

With a strong El Niño forecast to develop in the coming months, and as a result, a lower number of hurricanes forecast, this could have an impact on drought conditions growing across the South and Southeast.

While no one wants to see a tropical system make landfall (even meteorologists — despite what you might think), they do bring beneficial rain to a large portion of the South and Southeast.

(MORE: A Super El Niño Could Develop Later This Year. What That Means For Hurricane Season)

(MORE: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook)

A best-case scenario is a tropical storm or weak hurricane, moving at a moderate pace. One that dumps a reasonable amount of rain in a reasonable amount of time. Not much damage, not much of a disruption to everyday life, but beneficial when it comes to yearly rainfall numbers.

This is the same hope that Westerners have when it comes to atmospheric rivers.

Because the truth of the matter is that tropical systems account for anywhere from 10% to nearly 30% of seasonal precipitation across the southern region.

Florida, Louisiana and North Carolina have the highest percentage at 20% to 30%. Saying this with the obvious caveat that each storm, as well as each storm season, can come with wide variability.

Drought Is Building Across The South And Southeast

If you live across the Southern Tier of the U.S., there’s no denying that the ground is parched.

Nearly 75% of the Southeast is experiencing “severe drought,” which was just at 3% a year ago. In the South, 86% of the region is in drought conditions, up from roughly 35% a year ago.

And long-term precipitation forecasts aren’t looking good. AG2 just released its precipitation forecast for June through August, and it leaves the South and Southeast below-average for rainfall.

While they do forecast wetter conditions for May and June, the precipitation forecast really lacks rainfall for these regions during the height of the summer.

If A Hurricane Does Develop This Season, Here’s The Most Likely Track

We know from history that “super” El Niño years have seen much fewer hurricanes develop than years that aren’t defined as “super.”

(MORE: How A Potential Super El Niño Could Affect Hurricane Tracks This Season)

And the tracks have also painted a pretty clear picture as to where the landfalls have typically been.

Key takeaways:

• Almost all western and central Atlantic hurricanes curled away from the U.S.
• The Caribbean Sea is mostly quieter.

However, it’s important to note that impactful storms can still happen. It only takes that one storm to make your season busy. And it doesn’t necessarily need to be a “tropical system” to create catastrophic flooding.

Heavy Non-Tropical Rain Events Can Still Happen

We know that it doesn’t always take a tropical system to bring heavy rainfall to a region.

Take the 2016 Louisiana floods as an example. This was a slow-moving, non-tropical system that moved through Aug. 9-13, bringing an astonishing amount of rainfall to the southern part of the state.

Watson, Louisiana, which is about 20 miles northeast of Baton Rouge, received an astonishing 31.39 inches of rain from the storm. Areas around Livingston received more than 2 feet of rainfall.

The Amite River crested 5 feet above the previous record, spilling water into nearby towns.

Meteorologists say the event was fueled by a combination of well-above-average ocean temperatures in the Gulf and record levels of precipitable water values in the region. The storm sat nearly stationary for several days, wringing out more rainfall than the area had ever seen before.

So, despite the forecast calling for fewer hurricanes, you and your family should still be prepared this season, just like any other.

Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world's biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.