Severe Weather, Including Possible Tornado Threat, Returns To Plains And Midwest Through Early Next Week

Strong To Severe Storms Possible This Week

Severe weather for May standards has been quiet so far this month in much of the Plains and Midwest, but a more active pattern is about to take shape and will last through early next week, producing wind damage, large hail and a possible tornado threat.

Forecast Timing

-Wednesday-Wednesday Night: The start of this increased threat of severe weather will begin in the Northern Plains, especially from parts of the Dakotas into northeastern Nebraska. Right now, wind damage and large hail appear to be the primary threats.

-Thursday-Thursday Night: Areas shaded in red below from much of Wisconsin have the greatest chance to see severe weather, including Madison, Wisconsin, but the threat for significant hail and a strong tornado also includes much of the Midwest from Minnesota to Ohio.

Wind damage, large hail and tornado threat could accompany the severe storms across the Great Lakes and into the mid-Mississippi Valley, but the forecast will be refined in future updates to outline areas of potential greater concern.

These storms will likely form during the late afternoon or the evening hours.

It's possible the storms remain relatively isolated, especially in southern parts of the threat area, but where they do form they could be intense.

-Friday: Highest confidence in possible severe weather to end the workweek includes western and middle Tennessee, western and central Kentucky, southeast Missouri, northeast Arkansas and far southern parts of Indiana and Illinois. This could be expanded or shifted in future updates.

That might include severe storms impacting parts of the Central And Southern Plains and Midwest this weekend into next Tuesday. While it's too early for specific details, the storms could pack a tornado threat as well as wind damage and large hail.

Check back to The Weather Channel App and weather.com for updates on this forecast through the next several days and we'll provide more information.

-What To Do: Make sure you know where to seek safe shelter when severe weather strikes. Have several ways of receiving watches and warnings from the National Weather Service, including by smartphone (The Weather Channel app can alert you), NOAA weather radio and local media.

A More Favorable Pattern For Severe Weather

A pair of southward plunges of the jet stream will carve into the West, then spread toward the central states. One will arrive later this week followed by another this weekend into early next week.

In this pattern, warm and humid air eventually streams north from the Gulf into the Plains and Midwest under that active jet stream.

It's a setup more favorable for severe thunderstorms this time of year in the the Plains and Midwest, which are the regions where tornadoes are most common in May.

Chris Dolce has been a senior digital meteorologist with weather.com for nearly 15 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.