The U.S. tornado count so far in 2016 has been among the lowest of the last 11 years, according to data from NOAA and Dr. Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel severe weather expert.

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Through Aug. 16, 744 tornadoes touched down in the U.S. in 2016, just under 250 less than the 20-year average through that period of time, according to Forbes.

When looking at the number of tornado reports - rather than estimates of actual tornadoes - received by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, ,only 2013 had fewer reports through Aug. 10 over the last 11 years than this year so far.

Tornado counts have been below the 20-year average each of the past four complete months, encompassing what is typically the most active time of year for tornadoes in a broad swath of the tornado-prone central and southern U.S.

U.S. Tornado Statistics Through August 16, 2016
(Source: Dr. Greg Forbes/The Weather Channel, NOAA/SPC)
* = Dr. Forbes' estimated total; no * denotes actual number confirmed by NOAA/SPC

Tornadoes

20-year Average

January

18

40

February

102

35

March

85

76

April

140

188

May

214

276

June

75*

217

July

85*

112

August-to-date

25*

37

2016 Year-to-date

744*

981

Forbes' estimate of 75 June tornadoes, if it holds, would be the fewest during that month since 1988, a year of a severe drought in the Southeast, Midwest and northern Plains.

Only February and March were more "tornadic" than average so far in 2016.

February 2016 was the second most tornadic February in records dating to 1950, according to Forbes. Only 2008, with the record February "Super Tuesday" outbreak, was more tornadic during that winter month in the U.S.

Strangely, despite a late-May flurry of tornadoes in the nation's mid-section, the year's biggest, most concentrated tornado outbreak so far was the Feb. 23-24 outbreak in the South and in some of the Mid-Atlantic states.

An estimated 70 tornadoes touched down over those two days, including an EF3 tornado in Pensacola, Florida, the first deadly Febraury tornadoes of record in Virginia, and the first F/EF2 or stronger February tornado on record in Pennsylvania. 

(MORE: Five Oddities From the February Outbreak)

A few tornado-prone states have been notably quiet so far in 2016, including:

• Tennessee (4 confirmed tornadoes, the last 3 occurring on March 31; its 20-year annual average is 31 tornadoes)
• Missouri (12 confirmed tornadoes; annual average is 50 tornadoes)
• Arkansas (24 confirmed tornadoes; annual average is 44 tornadoes)

Oddly enough, Upper Michigan has exceeded its typical yearly tornado quota already.

One additional bit of good news is, thanks to the relative lack of outbreaks and only two violent tornadoes (EF4 or stronger), there have been only 12 tornado-related deaths so far in 2016.

The majority of these (7) occurred during the Feb. 23-24 outbreak. Only three of those occurred during the typical peak tornado months of April-June.

Despite the relative dearth of tornadoes, there have been plenty of severe thunderstorms.

While reports of large hail to NOAA/SPC were a bit below year-to-date average through mid-August, damaging or high thunderstorm straight-line wind reports were trending above average. 

This suggests instability - warm, humid air near the surface topped by cold, dry air aloft - and wind shear - changing wind speed and/or direction with height - haven't necessarily been lacking this year.

However, the combination of extreme instability and wind shear in the lowest levels of the atmosphere key for tornadic supercells may be less prevalent so far in 2016.

In a typical year, 79 percent of the tornadoes in the U.S. have already happened by August 16, according to Forbes. 

Despite that, tornado outbreaks can occur into the late summer and fall, particularly when one of the following situations sets up:

• A landfalling tropical cyclone or remnant.
  (MORE: 5 Most "Tornadic" Hurricanes)
   
• November in the South and, occasionally, the Lower Midwest can be an active month. 
  (MORE: Where November Tornadoes Are Most Common | Nov. 16, 2015 Outbreak | Nov. 17, 2013 Outbreak)

If the 12 tornado deaths holds the rest of 2016, this would beat 1986 (15 killed) for the nation's least deadly year for tornadoes in reliable records dating to 1950. Now there's a drought we can all pray for.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7.

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