Winter Storm

An East Coast Storm, Nor'easter With Snow, Rain, Wind Is Possible Sunday And Monday. Here's What We Know.

We've seen this before this winter. Low pressure will form off the East Coast. The question is where it goes. Here's our latest forecast thinking.

An East Coast storm could develop as soon as Sunday, but the track of this potential nor'easter isn't yet determined, leaving impacts such as snow, rain, wind and coastal flooding uncertain from New England to the mid-Atlantic states.

As is often the case, parts of this forecast are somewhat clearer, while others are quite uncertain several days out.

We'll lay all that out below.

(MORE: What Is A Nor'easter?)

What We Know

- Timing: Sunday (especially late) into Monday

- We expect low pressure to form Sunday off the East Coast, somewhere offshore between the Delmarva Peninsula and the Carolinas.

- That low pressure should gain strength, and could do so quickly enough to be called a "bomb cyclone" by early Monday, a term for low pressure that intensifies rapidly.

(MORE: What Is A Bomb Cyclone?)

What's Still Uncertain

The main uncertainty is where this offshore low tracks. That affects who may see snow, rain, wind and coastal flooding and the magnitude of those impacts.

To keep it simple, there are two extreme ends of this forecast:

1. The low intensifies too late and/or is too far offshore that impacts along the coast are minimal after some light rain, snow and gusty coastal winds Sunday.

2. The low intensifies and tracks closer to the coast, bringing a threat of coastal flooding, along with heavier rain or snow and high winds to the coast, and to some extent inland.

For now, more of the computer model solutions are leaning toward the first, "farther offshore" scenario. But it's too soon to be certain of that, as it could change.

(MORE: Why Northeast Winter Storms Can Be Difficult To Forecast)

The Forecast, For Now

The maps below show our current best forecast of snow and rain from this system from Sunday through Monday.

This may change in the next few days. Check back with us at weather.com for updates to this forecast in the coming days.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.