The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season could be one of the least active in over a decade, due in part to a strengthening El Niño, but as is the case every year, it could still be dangerous for some.

Here are the latest numbers

In its latest forecast update released Wednesday, Colorado State University's tropical meteorology project team is now forecasting only nine storms, four of which will become hurricanes and only one of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger.

That is five fewer storms and three fewer hurricanes than an average season.

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It would be the fewest storms in any Atlantic season since 2014, the fewest hurricanes since 2015 and the fewest Category 3 or stronger hurricanes since 2013 failed to produce a single major hurricane.

A mid-June outlook from Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company also forecast a below-average hurricane season.

There are some disclaimers, however

A less active hurricane season doesn't guarantee a no-impact season, as we already witnessed last month.

Tropical Storm Arthur wasn't well organized, but its flooding rain smashed Louisiana's all-time 24-hour rainfall record and produced the wettest June day on record in New Orleans.

Arthur showed that you don't need a hurricane to produce impacts such as flash flooding.

A super El Niño is increasingly likely

One of the biggest impacts forecast to affect this hurricane season is an intensifying El Niño that could become record strong by fall.

That matters because:

• El Niño-warmed ocean water can affect weather patterns around the world.
• The stronger the El Niño, the more certain it may have a strong influence.
• It can produce higher wind shear and sinking, dry air over the Caribbean Sea and other parts of the Atlantic, which are hostile conditions for hurricanes and tropical storms to develop.

It already seems to be having an influence. Wind shear over the Caribbean Sea is the second highest on record for early July, according to WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

Computer model forecasts through the heart of hurricane season hint at a classic signal of high wind shear in a strong El Niño across the "main development region," that area from Africa to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula where many tropical storms and hurricanes form.

El Niño Atlantic hurricane seasons have typically seen fewer hurricanes and less activity, especially if the El Niño is "super."

(MORE: Everything to know about El Niño | How it could affect hurricane tracks)

While this strong El Niño may make Caribbean travel less risky, it doesn't mean there won't be hurricane or tropical storm landfalls this season.

According to Atmospheric G2's June outlook, none of the seven analog El Niño seasons had more than one U.S. hurricane landfall.

But as we discussed in a previous article, there have been impactful hurricanes and tropical storms in past super El Niño seasons, including in the U.S.

Atlantic Ocean temperatures are mixed

Another factor in play is that ocean temperatures in some areas where tropical storms and hurricanes form aren't as warm as in past years, but are quite warm in others.

For instance, the stretch of ocean from off western Africa to the Windward Islands is generally near or even a little cooler than average as of early July.

However, parts of the Atlantic from the Azores to Bermuda to the Bahamas are warmer than average. The Gulf shows mixed signals, with record warm sea surface temperatures for early July, but somewhat cooler than usual heat content below the surface.

Ocean temperatures aren't the be-all and end-all for tropical activity, but Colorado State University lead tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach wrote the overall ocean temperature layout "provides mixed signals" regarding the hurricane season.

When could the season wake up?

The short answer for the Atlantic Basin is "it could be a while."

It's typical for the first two months of hurricane season to be suppressed by wind shear and sinking, dust-laden air from the Sahara Desert.

But this strengthening El Niño could help keep the Atlantic Basin quiet the rest of this month, perhaps into August.

That's the month we typically see Atlantic tropical activity rise dramatically.

How deep we'll go until we see the next Atlantic tropical storm (Bertha) remains to be seen.

If you live in hurricane-prone areas, you should prepare for every hurricane season, regardless of seasonal forecasts.

It takes only one landfall in your area to make what was otherwise a quiet season one you'll never forget.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.​