Groundhog Day: How Much Winter Weather Usually Follows? | Weather.com
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Does Groundhog Day give you a little dose of spring fever? Looking at average weather data, here is how much more cold and snow is typically left after February 2.

Jonathan Erdman
ByJonathan ErdmanJanuary 29, 2026
Groundhog Day 2025

Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025.

(Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Groundhog Day can feel like a pivot point toward spring, but there's usually much more snow and cold to come for many cities across the United States.

There are several ways to answer the question, "How much winter is left?"

- It's only a week until pitchers and catchers report to spring training in Arizona and Florida.

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- Meteorological winter only lasts through the end of February.

- The vernal equinox — the "official" arrival of spring — is Friday, March 20.

But that's not what we're after, here.

If you're tired of winter's cold and snow, here's how much more of that typically happens after the furry rodent — or any other animal — is dragged out of its home to adoring fans Monday.

Snow

Most cities in the northern and western U.S. average 10 or more inches of snow from Feb. 3 through spring, as shown in the map below from the Midwest Regional Climate Center, which is based on NOAA's 30-year average from 1991 through 2020.

aveagesnowfeb3may31.jpg

Average snowfall each season from Feb. 3 to May 31, based on 1991-2020 data.

(Midwest Regional Climate Center)

About 25% to 55% of the average season's snow falls after Groundhog Day in the Northeast, Midwest, West and Alaska.

Seventeen of the 25 cities we examined still average another foot or more of snow after Feb. 2, including Chicago, Detroit, New York City, Pittsburgh and Salt Lake City.

snow after Groundhog Day

Average snowfall and date of last measurable snow (at least 0.1 inches), according to 1991-2020 data.

(Data: NOAA/NWS)

Some cities average another 2 or more feet of snow after Groundhog Day.

Anchorage, Billings, Buffalo and Cleveland are some of the cities in this club that usually have much more shoveling to come.

In both Marquette, Michigan, and Tahoe City, in California's Sierra Nevada, another 82 to 90 inches of snow is typical after Feb. 2.

snow after Groundhog Day

Average snowfall and date of last measurable snow (at least 0.1 inches), according to 1991-2020 data.

(Data: NOAA/NWS)

Four of the seven cities with the highest percentage of seasonal snow after Groundhog Day are along the Northeast Interstate 95 corridor. Boston, New York City and Philadelphia each typically pick up about half of their season's snow after Feb. 2.

This is mainly due to the propensity for major Northeast snowstorms in February and March, though it's not a guarantee in any year.

Cold

Even if the snow finally shuts off for the season, spring cold snaps can still be irritating.

Only four of the 25 cities we examined typically see their last freeze of the season in March.

Otherwise, most cities outside the Mountain West or not near the U.S.-Canadian border usually still have freezes into April.

average last spring freeze

Average date of the last freeze, calculated from 1991-2020 U.S. climate normals.

(NOAA)

This translates to about four weeks' worth of days after Groundhog Day of morning lows at least dipping to the freezing mark in New York, Philadelphia and St. Louis; at least 45 such freezing mornings in Chicago and Pittsburgh; 50 such days in Detroit and Spokane; and at least 60 freezing mornings after Feb. 2 in Denver, Fargo and Flagstaff.

freezes after Groundhog Day

Average number of days with a low temperature of 32 degrees or colder, and the date of last freeze, according to 1991-2020 data.

(Data: NOAA/NWS )

In some parts of the far northern U.S. or Mountain West, a freeze is possible much of the spring.

freezes after Groundhog Day

Average number of days with a low temperature of 32 degrees or colder, and the date of last freeze, according to 1991-2020 data.

(Data: NOAA/NWS)

So, even a pessimistic "six more weeks of winter" forecast from your local groundhog doesn't typically capture the propensity for winter weather to lag into spring.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.

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