How Stronger El Niños In The Past Have Impacted The Atlantic Hurricane Season

How El Niño Impacts Atlantic Hurricanes

El Niño is likely to be ongoing during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. It could become strong, even potentially reaching “Super El Niño” levels.

Historically, when an El Niño occurs during hurricane season, it can lead to some interesting impacts.

(MORE: El Niño Coming This Summer)

In general, the shift in warm waters in the Pacific from an El Niño causes an increase in wind shear. This means changes in wind speed and direction in the tropical Atlantic Basin. Hurricanes want consistency in the atmosphere, so El Niño conditions can actually decrease the intensity and frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic.

(MORE: What Is El Niño?)

El Nino can also impact steering currents and shift the direction of tropical storms and hurricanes.

La Niña conditions do the opposite, leading to increased hurricane development in the Atlantic.

By examining recent strong El Niños, we can see that trend play out, along with a few outliers.

Latest El Niño And Hurricane Season

So I just talked a lot about how an El Niño tends to decrease the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricane seasons.

But this is not always the case. Example: 2023, the last El Niño to occur during a hurricane season.

This was one of the strongest in recent years, so you would think that this would lead to a weaker hurricane season.

But it didn’t.

In fact, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most active seasons with 20 named storms.

So why didn’t the El Niño hinder the Atlantic?

Well, for starters, the Atlantic was experiencing record-high sea surface temperatures. This provides plenty of fuel for storms, even if El Niño isn't happening.

El Niño is supposed to bring the shear to the Atlantic, but that didn't happen in 2023, which was one of the lowest in terms of shear.

That low shear helped to bring powerful hurricanes, with one of the most impactful being Hurricane Idalia, which devastated the Southeast.

(MORE: Idalia Recap)

Despite all this, El Niño did show up in one way by suppressing storms in the Caribbean. Only two named storms originated from there.

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

A year like 2018 is worth a study.

Originally, it was forecast for an above-average hurricane season. But after El Niño entered the picture, that changed.

This didn’t pan out the way it was forecast. El Niño was late to develop and stayed weak, helping to lead to a more active season. As a result, there were 15 named storms, with a notable landfall when Category 5 Hurricane Michael slammed into Florida.

(MORE: Michael Recap)

It shows that even if you have an El Niño pattern happening, it only takes one landfall to cause significant impacts.

(MORE: Full 2018 Hurricane Season Recap)

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season was also during a very strong El Niño. It was actually notable in that it reached "Super El Niño" levels during hurricane season. We have talked about how El Niño can hinder hurricane development, but in the case of the "Super El Niño," it is supposed to hinder hurricanes even further.

And this is exactly what happened.

This season was one of the least active in recent years, with only 11 named storms.

The strong El Niño increased wind shear that swept across the Atlantic Basin. This shear killed the development and intensity of numerous storms during the season.

There was also significant cooling across the Atlantic from the winter of 2014-15. This cooling helped keep parts of the sea surface temperatures below average into hurricane season. So a "Super El Niño" plus cooler sea surface temperatures helped keep the tropical activity to a relative minimum.

El Niño does tend to increase tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific, largely due to the decrease in wind shear and the warmer-than-average temperatures for the water in the area. Often with El Niño years, the Pacific has more named storms than the Atlantic, which was true this year as well.

(MORE: Full 2015 Hurricane Season Recap)

2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season

This was another year where an El Niño had an influence on the tropics in the Atlantic. This year brought yet another season where an El Niño began to peak during peak hurricane season.

As a result, we saw another below-average season for the Atlantic, with only nine named storms.

Prepare Regardless

Whether or not an El Niño is expected doesn’t automatically guarantee you will see no storms. Just because an El Niño is expected doesn’t mean you will have no storms.

In recent years, we have had an El Niño that hardly impacted the Atlantic, an El Niño that stifled development, and we have even seen an El Niño fake us out and not develop.

And it only takes one landfall in any season to cause devastation across a landfall's path.

It is never too early to prepare for a hurricane.