Tropical Storm Watch In Effect For Leeward Islands

Wind alerts have been issued in the Caribbean ahead of newly-formed Tropical Storm Jerry. While it is no danger to the mainland U.S., it could pose a threat to the Leeward Islands with rain and wind.

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Jerry's Forecast

Jerry is moving quickly toward the west-northwest, but will soon slow down a tad and eventually make a northwest to northward curl by this weekend, as several other storms have done this season. Therefore, Jerry is not a threat to the mainland U.S.

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The NHC is also forecasting Jerry to strengthen to a hurricane by Thursday, before it makes its closest pass to the northern Leewards.

The storm's first impacts will be in the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical storm watches have been issued for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius and Guadeloupe. Tropical storm conditions are possible there late Thursday or on Friday.

Exactly when it makes that northward curl is key, as Jerry makes its closest pass near the northern Leeward Islands sometime later Thursday or Friday. That could bring heavy rain and strong winds to parts of the northern Leewards.

But if Jerry makes its turn sooner, impacts in the northern Leewards would be less.

All interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor Jerry's forecast closely.

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Southwest Gulf

The NHC is also monitoring another area over Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula for development. It's marked by the "X" and color-coded blob in the map below.

For now, there is a low chance it could develop in the Bay of Campeche in the far southwest Gulf before it moves into eastern Mexico by Thursday.

The main threat, regardless, is locally heavy, flooding rainfall across Belize, northern Guatemala and southern Mexico over the next few days.

Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on these, and other happenings in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

Here's Jerry

Jerry became the 10th storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season late Tuesday morning as it was just over 1,300 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.

That's about two weeks later than the average pace of the 10th storm — Sept. 22 — according to the National Hurricane Center's 30-year average.

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Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.